NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	90		Excitement	8.5 [198]		MVP	Devin Brown (SAS): +7.2%
San Antonio Spurs	87		Comeback	13.1 [63]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -27.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenyon Martin	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	15	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	7	71%	0.01
Francisco Elson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	44%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Person	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	6	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	4	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17	-0.04	-0.12	0.01	12	47%	-0.14	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.05
Eduardo Najera	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.25	-0.03	-0.21	0.00	4	42%	-0.25	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.14
Carmelo Anthony	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.26,-0.26,-0.18,-0.27	-0.12	-0.15	0.00	17	45%	-0.14	3	-0.14	13	92%	0.11

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.08	-0.03	13	52%	0.15	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Tony Massenburg	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	13	57%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Mike Wilks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	70%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	0.00	4	62%	0.07	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	7	14%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.12	0.02	19	54%	-0.08	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.05
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.26	-0.26	-0.11	-0.15	0.00	5	17%	-0.19	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.26	-0.26	-0.02	-0.25	-0.00	8	50%	-0.05	1	-0.21	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.8	29.8	16.8	24.2	2.6	38.9	139.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -41.1%

DEN +19.8%

DEN +29.7%

DEN +40.4%

DEN +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.4	17.6	15.5	101.1	95.6	104.0
season	14.8	16.3		103.8	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		98.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	15.0	12.7	15.8	14.4
SAS	17.6	16.3	17.3	19.2	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	65	68	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.46	14	-11	25	13.9	15.8	-1.91	18.0	16.3	1.64
Andre Miller	51	54	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.46	13	-10	23	13.7	15.3	-1.66	19.2	15.2	4.01
Greg Buckner	47	47	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.61	6	-3	9	14.8	14.0	0.83	16.6	18.6	-2.06
DerMarr Johnson	14	17	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.57	3	0	3	12.4	14.8	-2.33	18.4	17.4	0.96
Carmelo Anthony	68	70	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.23	7	-4	11	14.1	15.5	-1.42	17.8	16.7	1.18
Eduardo Najera	34	34	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.45	-8	11	-19	15.1	14.0	1.08	15.4	18.9	-3.54
Kenyon Martin	68	68	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.00	3	0	3	14.5	14.0	0.58	18.6	14.6	4.02
Francisco Elson	10	11	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.09	-5	8	-13	15.1	14.3	0.80	17.0	17.6	-0.65
Earl Boykins	46	46	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.21	-4	7	-11	14.5	14.2	0.31	16.2	18.9	-2.69
Wesley Person	43	42	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	-0.08	-12	15	-27	15.3	13.5	1.85	16.8	18.2	-1.46

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	20	20	0.45	-0.95	1.41	0.16	10	-13	23	16.7	17.8	-1.12	15.9	14.0	1.94
Nazr Mohammed	30	31	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.09	3	-6	9	15.8	18.4	-2.64	15.1	14.0	1.13
Mike Wilks	2	1	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	-1	-1	13.0	17.7	-4.67	9.0	14.5	-5.45
Brent Barry	61	62	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.43	12	-15	27	17.9	17.0	0.85	15.1	12.7	2.48
Tony Massenburg	50	48	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.32	8	-11	19	18.5	16.5	1.97	14.9	13.8	1.09
Bruce Bowen	58	55	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	3	-9	18.1	16.7	1.42	13.5	15.8	-2.31
Rasho Nesterovic	62	58	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	0	-3	18.5	15.6	2.91	13.9	15.2	-1.28
Devin Brown	63	61	-0.80	0.30	-1.09	-0.44	-12	9	-21	16.8	19.2	-2.42	14.4	14.3	0.10
Tony Parker	70	69	-0.96	0.46	-1.41	-0.58	-13	10	-23	17.7	17.0	0.68	14.0	15.9	-1.94
Robert Horry	40	40	-1.02	0.52	-1.54	-0.61	-14	11	-25	16.7	18.2	-1.51	14.0	14.7	-0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.78,0.9,0.92,0.83,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 88, BOS 83	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.86,0.85,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.91,0.96,0.91,0.58,0	91.4%
HOU 85, CHA 82	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.75,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.78,0.73,0	91.0%
BOS 86, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.73,0	90.6%