NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	88		Excitement	8.5 [199]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +27.3%
Detroit Pistons	92		Comeback	2.1 [759]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -46.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.28,0.27	0.08	0.18	-0.02	12	75%	0.42	3	-0.14	4	100%	0.03
Andris Biedrins	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	4	100%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.02	0.04	0.01	11	54%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.01	6	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	12	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Rodney White	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	7	41%	-0.02	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	5	50%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.43	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22,-0.43	-0.14	-0.31	-0.02	17	26%	-0.43	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.18

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.00	13	62%	0.17	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.06
Ronald Dupree	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,0.02	0.02	-0.10	0.07	-0.04	12	42%	0.05	2	-0.04	7	43%	-0.04
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.00	9	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.05,0,0,-0.1,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.00	13	54%	-0.03	0	0.00	11	91%	0.06
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.02	-0.01	7	32%	-0.08	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.03
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.29,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.39,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47	-0.47	-0.22	-0.26	-0.01	20	31%	-0.32	4	-0.15	5	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.3	29.7	17.6	26.2	2.0	38.0	142.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -52.0%

DET +49.9%

DET +49.0%

DET +3.1%

GSW -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DET	NBA	GSW	DET	NBA
this game	15.6	17.6	15.5	98.9	108.2	104.0
season	15.0	16.7		102.3	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.2		98.9	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	16.2	15.3	14.7	16.1	15.6
DET	18.2	18.2	16.0	18.2	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zarko Cabarkapa	9	8	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-6	8	16.8	15.4	1.37	19.7	17.4	2.37
Andris Biedrins	25	23	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.06	-1	-3	2	14.9	15.8	-0.88	16.7	17.9	-1.24
Mickael Pietrus	35	33	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	-1	-2	15.0	15.9	-0.86	17.7	17.5	0.16
Mike Dunleavy	48	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-5	6	15.6	15.5	0.03	16.2	19.2	-2.97
Rodney White	10	9	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	2	-8	18.7	15.2	3.55	16.0	17.8	-1.79
Derek Fisher	54	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.31	0	-4	4	15.4	15.8	-0.36	18.0	16.9	1.05
Adonal Foyle	64	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-1	-2	15.7	15.0	0.71	18.5	15.4	3.04
Baron Davis	57	54	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	0	-4	16.2	14.3	1.93	17.9	17.1	0.79
Troy Murphy	69	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.51	0	-4	4	15.1	16.9	-1.81	17.6	17.7	-0.16
Jason Richardson	74	70	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.40	-6	2	-8	15.2	17.3	-2.06	17.5	18.2	-0.73

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	74	78	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.38	9	-5	14	17.4	19.3	-1.92	15.0	19.2	-4.14
Tayshaun Prince	65	68	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.42	7	-3	10	17.6	17.5	0.13	15.0	17.4	-2.46
Chauncey Billups	60	63	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.39	8	-4	12	17.4	18.0	-0.62	15.7	15.3	0.34
Ben Wallace	67	69	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.50	1	3	-2	17.6	17.6	0.06	15.3	16.2	-0.90
Rasheed Wallace	60	63	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.15	6	-2	8	17.2	18.5	-1.30	15.9	14.6	1.32
Antonio McDyess	43	46	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	3	-2	18.1	17.1	1.04	15.3	15.8	-0.46
Ronald Dupree	20	20	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.04	-5	9	-14	17.5	17.6	-0.13	18.3	14.8	3.55
Carlos Arroyo	36	38	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.01	-7	11	-18	18.4	17.0	1.42	16.0	15.2	0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.48,0.32,0.47,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.78,0.53,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 96, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.85,0.67,0.58,1	93.1%
BOS 98, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.74,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.75,0.64,0.86,0.58,1	91.5%
ATL 101, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.82,1	91.4%