NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	104		Excitement	2.4 [1271]		MVP	Rasho Nesterovic (SAS): +11.8%
Charlotte Bobcats	85		Comeback	1.0 [633]		LVP	Theron Smith (CHA): -7.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasho Nesterovic	0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.00	-0.01	9	79%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Sean Marks	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	4	62%	0.02	2	-0.00	5	80%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	13	62%	0.04	4	-0.02	6	17%	-0.03
Manu Ginobili	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	11	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	67%	0.02	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Malik Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	9	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Horry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.04	8	65%	-0.00	2	-0.02	7	100%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	4	10%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	10	54%	0.02	3	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	12	50%	-0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	3	75%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	-0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	8	42%	-0.03	2	-0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.05	0.00	0.09	15	53%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	10	45%	-0.03	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	4	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	10	41%	-0.02	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Theron Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	0.00	-0.06	13	29%	-0.07	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	1.4	25.4	15.4	25.4	2.4	29.6	126.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +42.6%

CHA -2.3%

SAS +4.4%

SAS +5.8%

CHA -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHA	NBA	SAS	CHA	NBA
this game	16.4	13.9	15.5	109.5	89.5	104.0
season	16.3	15.5		105.8	99.0
opponent	15.1	15.6		105.4	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	15.8	16.0	18.6	16.4
CHA	15.7	15.5	14.0	10.7	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	49	48	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.17	20	-1	21	17.1	15.6	1.52	14.8	13.1	1.66
Tony Parker	63	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.26	23	-4	27	15.3	18.4	-3.07	14.7	12.4	2.32
Rasho Nesterovic	44	45	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.23	21	-2	23	16.2	16.5	-0.35	14.5	13.4	1.07
Bruce Bowen	73	76	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.17	19	0	19	16.1	17.2	-1.06	14.3	12.5	1.78
Tony Massenburg	40	42	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.03	9	10	-1	16.4	16.3	0.05	14.5	13.5	1.08
Malik Rose	43	44	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.02	5	14	-9	16.3	16.4	-0.08	14.3	13.6	0.73
Brent Barry	52	52	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	19	-19	15.2	17.8	-2.60	12.9	15.2	-2.35
Sean Marks	28	25	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	15	-11	17.4	16.0	1.40	13.6	14.1	-0.42
Robert Horry	15	14	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.05	2	17	-15	16.0	16.4	-0.44	14.5	13.9	0.65
Beno Udrih	32	32	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.21	-4	23	-27	18.4	15.3	3.07	12.4	14.7	-2.32
Devin Brown	36	34	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	23	-27	17.2	15.9	1.33	11.6	15.2	-3.63

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	49	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-15	11	13.7	14.3	-0.61	15.2	17.8	-2.60
Keith Bogans	21	21	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.12	-12	-7	-5	16.9	13.1	3.80	17.0	16.2	0.75
Jason Kapono	61	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	-13	7	12.7	16.3	-3.61	16.4	16.4	0.01
Jason Hart	59	58	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.07	-11	-8	-3	14.2	13.5	0.68	14.5	19.2	-4.71
Theron Smith	47	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	-10	1	13.9	14.0	-0.06	14.9	17.9	-3.00
Melvin Ely	59	57	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.03	-10	-9	-1	13.9	14.1	-0.17	17.4	14.8	2.54
Gerald Wallace	52	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.03	-8	-11	3	13.9	14.0	-0.10	18.3	14.2	4.12
Brevin Knight	65	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	-9	-1	13.1	15.8	-2.76	17.4	14.2	3.12
Primoz Brezec	62	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.23	-25	6	-31	15.2	11.5	3.73	16.5	16.2	0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 107, OKC 89	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%
MIN 104, VAN 91	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.33,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.7%
ORL 105, NJN 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%