NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	73		Excitement	1.9 [1296]		MVP	Brent Barry (SAS): +12.2%
San Antonio Spurs	101		Comeback	1.0 [1255]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -11.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarvis Hayes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.13	0.00	0.11	20	64%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Ruffin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Laron Profit	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	2	17%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	6	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Juan Dixon	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	10	48%	0.01	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	10	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	8	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.23	0.00	-0.12	12	11%	-0.08	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.17	0.00	0.05	8	106%	0.12	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.16	0.00	0.07	13	80%	0.09	1	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	15	64%	0.05	2	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	9	39%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	9	42%	-0.03	1	-0.01	8	62%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.0	26.2	16.7	25.1	2.7	25.0	119.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.7%

SAS +0.8%

SAS +7.9%

SAS +1.4%

SAS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	SAS	NBA	WAS	SAS	NBA
this game	18.7	17.6	15.5	92.4	126.2	104.0
season	14.7	16.3		104.7	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		98.4	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.3	18.4	22.5	18.0	18.7
SAS	18.9	18.5	16.6	16.3	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Ruffin	21	21	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-27	26	18.0	18.9	-0.98	16.3	18.0	-1.67
Laron Profit	21	21	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-27	26	18.0	18.9	-0.98	16.3	18.0	-1.67
Jarvis Hayes	51	52	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	-23	18	18.6	18.8	-0.18	17.8	17.2	0.59
Samaki Walker	38	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	-24	20	18.9	18.4	0.53	17.5	17.7	-0.20
Anthony Peeler	38	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.12	-9	-19	10	18.6	18.7	-0.08	17.5	17.6	-0.15
Etan Thomas	40	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.18	-13	-15	2	18.9	18.4	0.46	16.3	18.8	-2.50
Brendan Haywood	23	22	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.23	-18	-10	-8	19.5	18.3	1.20	19.3	16.9	2.36
Antawn Jamison	32	31	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.22	-20	-8	-12	18.1	19.0	-0.92	18.1	17.2	0.92
Juan Dixon	44	44	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.17	-19	-9	-10	18.6	18.7	-0.08	17.9	17.2	0.67
Jared Jeffries	32	32	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.27	-23	-5	-18	18.6	18.7	-0.18	18.0	17.3	0.73
Gilbert Arenas	55	56	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.32	-27	-1	-26	19.0	17.9	1.08	17.8	16.9	0.92

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	46	44	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.28	26	2	24	18.2	16.7	1.54	18.2	19.3	-1.16
Tony Parker	55	56	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.46	32	-4	36	17.1	18.6	-1.51	19.6	16.4	3.15
Bruce Bowen	49	50	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.41	28	0	28	17.6	17.6	-0.03	18.9	18.2	0.73
Rasho Nesterovic	44	44	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.31	24	4	20	18.5	16.4	2.13	19.7	17.4	2.28
Brent Barry	49	46	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.13	17	11	6	17.7	17.4	0.23	18.2	19.3	-1.09
Devin Brown	51	51	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.10	9	19	-10	16.4	19.6	-3.17	18.5	18.9	-0.40
Robert Horry	31	32	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.13	8	20	-12	15.7	18.7	-2.97	19.5	18.1	1.34
Beno Udrih	19	18	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.05	1	27	-26	21.2	16.4	4.72	18.2	18.8	-0.58
Tony Massenburg	22	22	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	27	-26	16.3	18.1	-1.78	17.8	19.0	-1.18
Mike Wilks	17	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	31	-34	18.3	17.4	0.93	16.9	19.1	-2.25
Malik Rose	17	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	31	-34	18.3	17.4	0.93	16.9	19.1	-2.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 81, POR 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%
LAL 101, PHX 137	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%
OKC 85, LAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%