NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	107		Excitement	6.9 [473]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +34.3%
Miami Heat	117		Comeback	3.4 [701]		LVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): -12.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.12	0.13	-0.02	13	73%	0.30	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Mario Kasun	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Grant Hill	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	14	62%	0.06	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Tony Battie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	6	38%	0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	11	46%	0.06	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.03	-0.07	0.04	23	57%	0.00	2	-0.08	8	50%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.19	0.16	0.01	10	100%	0.38	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.10	0.00	7	62%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	7	64%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	18	66%	0.19	3	-0.12	5	60%	-0.04
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	0.04	8	56%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.04	20	43%	-0.03	2	-0.05	11	91%	0.04
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	31.2	18.7	29.2	2.5	30.2	138.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +20.5%

MIA +9.5%

MIA +10.4%

MIA +8.5%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.2	16.9	15.5	115.1	127.2	104.0
season	14.3	15.7		102.9	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		101.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.4	11.8	13.4	16.2	14.2
MIA	17.1	14.9	18.1	18.1	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	53	51	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.05	11	-21	32	12.7	16.3	-3.62	17.3	16.4	0.86
Mario Kasun	20	22	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.08	3	-13	16	13.3	14.5	-1.19	15.5	17.4	-1.92
Jameer Nelson	15	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-14	18	13.1	14.5	-1.39	16.3	17.1	-0.79
Stacey Augmon	0	1	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-7	4	0.0	14.2	-14.24	3.0	17.1	-14.07
Pat Garrity	28	27	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-8	6	12.7	14.9	-2.23	17.5	16.7	0.80
Dwight Howard	65	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	-2	-6	14.9	12.7	2.23	16.7	17.5	-0.80
Grant Hill	72	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	0	-10	14.5	13.5	0.98	16.6	18.0	-1.41
Tony Battie	73	70	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.12	-13	3	-16	14.5	13.3	1.19	17.4	15.5	1.92
Steve Francis	78	75	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.08	-17	7	-24	14.5	13.1	1.39	16.9	17.1	-0.18
Cuttino Mobley	61	60	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.17	-15	5	-20	15.3	12.2	3.17	17.4	15.9	1.50

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	43	46	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.21	16	-6	22	17.4	16.5	0.91	13.7	14.7	-1.03
Eddie Jones	74	76	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.13	15	-5	20	16.6	18.4	-1.83	14.4	13.6	0.79
Christian Laettner	39	41	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.26	8	2	6	17.3	16.6	0.73	14.1	14.3	-0.25
Shaquille O'Neal	73	74	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	-5	20	17.0	16.6	0.35	14.8	12.0	2.81
Dwyane Wade	78	78	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.21	8	2	6	16.9	17.2	-0.36	14.2	14.4	-0.19
Michael Doleac	16	15	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	11	-12	16.7	17.0	-0.27	12.3	14.6	-2.35
Rasual Butler	32	32	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	13	-16	17.9	16.4	1.47	14.0	14.4	-0.41
Udonis Haslem	56	56	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	12	-14	16.6	17.4	-0.83	14.1	14.4	-0.33
Damon Jones	49	47	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.00	-6	16	-22	16.5	17.4	-0.91	14.7	13.7	1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.7,0.53,0.4,0.47,0.75,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 96, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.4,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.36,0.4,0.27,0.37,0.44,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.41,0.54,0.67,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.96,1	92.4%
LAL 100, MEM 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.71,0.91,0.99,1	92.2%
MIL 81, UTA 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.69,0.6,0.47,0.61,0.79,0.95,0.99,1	91.6%