NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	76		Excitement	5.9 [674]		MVP	Brian Cook (LAL): +22.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	89		Comeback	1.5 [885]		LVP	Lee Nailon (NOH): -20.5%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	9	60%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.03	20	52%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Junior Harrington	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	11	54%	0.09	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Freije	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
David West	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	9	52%	-0.03	2	-0.06	11	82%	-0.01
David Wesley	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.15	-0.04	-0.01	11	28%	-0.11	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
Lee Nailon	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21	-0.20	-0.05	-0.05	14	7%	-0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.23	0.07	0.10	-0.05	7	71%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.07	-0.02	9	71%	0.18	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	57%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Luke Walton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	10	56%	0.00	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Tierre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	0.01	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-0.04	20	44%	0.01	7	-0.17	5	100%	0.03
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.05	0.02	10	43%	-0.06	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.0	31.4	16.0	25.6	2.7	27.5	130.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +43.0%

LAL +4.5%

LAL +5.0%

NOH -3.8%

LAL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	LAL	NBA	NOH	LAL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.9	15.5	85.4	98.9	104.0
season	16.5	15.7		97.7	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.7		108.8	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	18.0	18.5	15.6	13.6	16.3
LAL	14.0	20.4	13.2	17.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Wesley	56	56	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.06	3	-16	19	17.2	14.8	2.36	14.7	17.8	-3.08
Chris Andersen	37	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.11	2	-15	17	17.6	15.4	2.26	15.2	16.3	-1.14
P.J. Brown	71	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	-6	-1	15.9	17.9	-2.06	16.0	15.4	0.61
David West	70	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-4	-5	16.2	16.5	-0.28	16.0	15.3	0.68
Darrell Armstrong	70	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.12	-8	-5	-3	16.3	16.2	0.18	16.4	13.8	2.58
Matt Freije	42	42	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.01	-12	-1	-11	17.4	15.3	2.13	14.6	17.0	-2.36
Lee Nailon	47	50	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.05	-13	0	-13	15.0	17.8	-2.81	17.0	14.4	2.62
Junior Harrington	52	53	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.05	-21	8	-29	15.3	17.7	-2.40	16.4	15.2	1.22

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jumaine Jones	34	32	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.18	14	-1	15	16.7	15.4	1.28	17.0	15.9	1.09
Brian Cook	36	36	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	0	13	15.6	16.1	-0.54	15.2	17.0	-1.82
Lamar Odom	82	80	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.11	14	-1	15	16.0	15.1	0.83	16.1	17.9	-1.76
Kobe Bryant	83	82	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	9	-5	15.4	21.3	-5.86	16.1	18.3	-2.15
Tierre Brown	30	27	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	7	-1	17.9	14.9	3.03	17.1	15.9	1.21
Chucky Atkins	60	62	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	6	1	14.9	17.9	-3.03	15.9	17.1	-1.21
Kareem Rush	7	7	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.07	9	4	5	21.3	15.4	5.86	18.3	16.1	2.15
Luke Walton	10	11	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.04	7	6	1	19.8	15.4	4.41	18.6	16.0	2.66
Chris Mihm	46	46	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	16	-19	14.6	17.2	-2.60	17.0	15.6	1.35
Caron Butler	62	62	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.02	-6	19	-25	15.8	16.0	-0.13	15.9	17.2	-1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 115, LAL 122	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.48,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1	94.5%
DEN 53, DET 74	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
TOR 92, NJN 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.71,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.86,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.6%