NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	118		Excitement	7.7 [323]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +24.2%
Washington Wizards	106		Comeback	1.1 [581]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): -12.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.19,0.23,0.24	0.18	0.13	0.07	12	92%	0.36	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.00
Michael Doleac	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.00	7	56%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.01	16	77%	0.28	7	-0.25	16	87%	0.05
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	79%	0.06	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	13	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	0.02	-0.02	10	41%	-0.04	3	-0.09	12	25%	-0.16

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.08	-0.01	16	60%	0.16	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	20	59%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Michael Ruffin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.04	0.00	17	41%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	0.02	6	57%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	15	60%	0.10	7	-0.20	15	87%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	30.9	0.3	29.4	2.6	38.1	128.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +59.9%

MIA +5.0%

MIA +6.6%

WAS -17.5%

WAS -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	13.8	14.2	15.5	113.5	103.9	104.0
season	15.7	14.7		107.9	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		105.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.8	14.3	13.5	14.4	13.8
WAS	17.2	12.8	13.7	13.3	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	94	92	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.12	19	-7	26	13.7	14.9	-1.23	14.0	15.7	-1.69
Damon Jones	72	69	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.17	14	-2	16	13.5	14.3	-0.80	13.7	15.2	-1.58
Udonis Haslem	74	73	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.08	15	-3	18	13.7	14.1	-0.44	14.3	14.0	0.29
Eddie Jones	51	52	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.05	16	-4	20	14.2	13.4	0.84	15.7	12.6	3.01
Michael Doleac	34	32	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.19	1	11	-10	12.1	14.6	-2.44	13.1	14.7	-1.58
Shaquille O'Neal	56	57	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	11	-10	14.6	12.8	1.77	15.2	12.9	2.34
Malik Allen	39	37	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	9	-6	14.3	13.5	0.87	13.8	14.4	-0.66
Wesley Person	23	21	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.11	-6	18	-24	14.8	13.5	1.33	10.5	15.1	-4.60
Rasual Butler	77	77	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.02	-3	15	-18	13.5	14.5	-0.94	14.6	12.8	1.88

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Ruffin	33	32	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.04	9	-21	30	15.8	13.4	2.47	14.8	13.3	1.43
Juan Dixon	46	50	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.19	1	-13	14	13.3	14.9	-1.63	14.4	13.2	1.18
Anthony Peeler	21	22	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	-2	-8	11.9	14.8	-2.86	11.6	14.4	-2.73
Larry Hughes	73	74	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	-1	-10	13.9	14.9	-0.96	14.0	13.2	0.83
Jarvis Hayes	84	85	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.02	-10	-2	-8	14.3	13.4	0.96	13.9	13.1	0.84
Samaki Walker	40	41	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-4	-4	14.8	13.8	1.07	12.2	14.8	-2.67
Antawn Jamison	82	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.21	-6	-6	0	14.8	11.5	3.27	14.2	12.3	1.86
Jared Jeffries	33	35	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.05	-13	1	-14	12.8	14.8	-2.05	13.9	13.7	0.23
Gilbert Arenas	98	99	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	0	-12	14.2	12.5	1.74	13.6	17.2	-3.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.31,0.39,0.31,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.38,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.28,0.2,0.28,0.32,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 112, PHX 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.31,0.23,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.27,0.25,0.36,0.23,0.02,0	91.7%
SAS 113, TOR 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.17,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.38,0.21,0.14,0.01,0	91.4%
LAL 103, PHX 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.2,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.36,0.16,0.26,0.31,0.54,0.31,0.27,0	91.4%