NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	113		Excitement	3.5 [1110]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +17.5%
Washington Wizards	85		Comeback	1.1 [552]		LVP	Juan Dixon (WAS): -8.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.06	0.03	14	81%	0.19	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Keith Van Horn	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.00	-0.06	8	59%	0.05	2	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.02	9	55%	0.04	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	10	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	75%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.00	0.04	5	80%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	10	58%	0.05	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Daniel Santiago	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	1	75%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Haislip	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	-0.06	11	43%	-0.01	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	-0.05	5	33%	-0.02	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	11	67%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	11	45%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.11	-0.00	-0.09	5	20%	-0.02	3	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.13	-0.02	-0.10	21	46%	0.02	6	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Mitchell Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	8	37%	-0.03	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	13	36%	-0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	0.2	29.5	15.4	27.4	1.7	27.3	122.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +38.6%

MIL +2.4%

MIL +1.5%

MIL +7.4%

MIL +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	15.2	14.7	15.7	116.5	88.5	100.5
season	15.3	15.2		103.6	96.4
opponent	15.3	15.5		102.4	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.6	14.2	15.5	15.2	15.2
WAS	15.0	18.5	12.8	13.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Mason	67	67	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.35	31	-3	34	15.2	15.0	0.18	14.6	14.9	-0.30
Michael Redd	68	67	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	12	4	16.0	13.1	2.93	14.3	15.6	-1.24
Joe Smith	60	61	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.25	22	6	16	15.1	15.2	-0.01	13.6	16.7	-3.10
T.J. Ford	57	57	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.35	25	3	22	16.2	13.6	2.56	13.2	16.9	-3.68
Brian Skinner	52	53	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.27	20	8	12	15.7	14.5	1.20	15.2	14.1	1.03
Dan Gadzuric	45	43	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.06	8	20	-12	14.5	15.7	-1.20	14.1	15.2	-1.03
Damon Jones	40	39	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	25	-22	13.6	16.2	-2.56	16.9	13.2	3.68
Toni Kukoc	27	26	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.10	0	28	-28	15.9	14.9	1.07	18.3	13.3	5.02
Keith Van Horn	39	40	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	31	-34	14.6	15.5	-0.94	16.8	13.2	3.58
Daniel Santiago	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.18	6	22	-16	13.1	15.4	-2.29	11.8	15.0	-3.21
Erick Strickland	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.18	6	22	-16	13.1	15.4	-2.29	11.8	15.0	-3.21
Marcus Haislip	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.18	6	22	-16	13.1	15.4	-2.29	11.8	15.0	-3.21

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	60	61	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.28	-11	-17	6	14.8	14.6	0.21	14.5	16.2	-1.74
Jared Jeffries	52	52	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.27	-11	-17	6	14.6	14.8	-0.24	14.9	15.5	-0.58
Christian Laettner	11	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-27	26	13.7	14.8	-1.08	14.5	15.2	-0.69
Steve Blake	39	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.29	-14	-14	0	14.9	14.5	0.35	13.6	16.3	-2.72
Mitchell Butler	6	7	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-23	18	23.3	14.1	9.22	14.3	15.2	-0.94
Juan Dixon	66	64	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.31	-19	-9	-10	14.3	15.5	-1.18	16.0	13.6	2.35
Jerry Stackhouse	42	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	-19	10	14.2	15.0	-0.80	16.0	14.5	1.56
Jarvis Hayes	58	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.33	-22	-6	-16	14.8	14.5	0.27	14.1	16.7	-2.60
Brendan Haywood	24	24	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-14	-14	0	15.2	14.5	0.69	17.7	14.3	3.39
Gilbert Arenas	77	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.05	-15	-13	-2	14.4	15.9	-1.51	15.7	13.0	2.65
Kwame Brown	45	46	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.06	-19	-9	-10	14.7	14.7	-0.04	15.1	15.2	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 92, NJN 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0	95.9%
DAL 114, CLE 98	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.22,0.24,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
MIN 95, LAC 73	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%