NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	85		Excitement	4.9 [837]		MVP	Andrei Kirilenko (UTA): +16.6%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	1.1 [1147]		LVP	Carlos Arroyo (UTA): -13.7%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.16	0.02	0.01	14	86%	0.25	4	-0.08	8	100%	0.04
Raul Lopez	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	7	43%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Raja Bell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	12	42%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	30%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	18	39%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Carlos Arroyo	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	13	29%	-0.10	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.06	-0.05	13	72%	0.21	5	-0.09	17	82%	0.02
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.02	0.03	7	86%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.03	0.02	8	71%	0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	10	54%	0.08	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	78%	0.04	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	14	32%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	10%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.4	27.4	18.7	28.6	2.7	32.6	135.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.6%

MIA +19.5%

UTA -9.6%

UTA -1.4%

MIA +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIA	NBA	UTA	MIA	NBA
this game	18.0	14.7	15.7	96.6	110.2	100.5
season	17.2	16.2		99.4	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.2		98.8	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	19.7	20.2	18.3	14.4	18.0
MIA	14.6	14.1	15.1	15.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	9	10	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.12	5	-17	22	19.7	17.8	1.84	13.0	14.9	-1.94
Jarron Collins	51	52	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-14	16	16.9	19.6	-2.69	14.9	14.5	0.41
Carlos Arroyo	62	61	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-13	14	18.2	17.5	0.67	14.0	16.3	-2.28
Michael Ruffin	45	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-8	4	20.5	15.4	5.16	15.3	14.0	1.25
Sasha Pavlovic	18	16	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.09	-12	0	-12	19.9	17.5	2.36	15.4	14.6	0.88
Greg Ostertag	37	37	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-4	-4	18.2	17.8	0.40	15.1	14.5	0.63
DeShawn Stevenson	67	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.13	-6	-6	0	17.3	20.2	-2.86	14.9	14.1	0.82
Raul Lopez	26	27	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	1	-14	17.5	18.2	-0.67	16.3	14.0	2.28
Andrei Kirilenko	70	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.08	-13	1	-14	17.6	19.6	-2.01	13.9	17.4	-3.54
Raja Bell	55	55	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	0	-12	17.3	19.2	-1.87	14.7	14.8	-0.12

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	61	60	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.17	14	-2	16	14.6	14.9	-0.30	17.3	19.4	-2.08
Malik Allen	22	24	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.04	12	0	12	13.9	15.0	-1.08	20.0	17.3	2.68
Rasual Butler	37	37	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	0	12	16.1	13.7	2.31	18.8	17.5	1.29
Dwyane Wade	69	69	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.21	4	8	-4	14.1	17.0	-2.91	18.0	18.2	-0.25
Lamar Odom	64	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.04	9	3	6	13.8	17.0	-3.20	18.4	16.9	1.47
Eddie Jones	66	67	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	2	8	14.6	15.0	-0.32	17.8	18.8	-0.99
Udonis Haslem	24	22	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	9	-6	17.0	13.8	3.20	16.9	18.4	-1.47
Brian Grant	66	64	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	12	-12	15.0	13.9	1.08	17.3	20.0	-2.68
Caron Butler	31	31	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	16	-20	14.9	14.6	0.24	19.0	17.5	1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 88, UTA 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.76,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%
WAS 112, OKC 121	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.73,0.67,0.77,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.84,0.81,0.78,0.67,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.97,1,1	93.8%
CHH 81, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.4%