NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	6.4 [519]		MVP	Andre Miller (DEN): +11.4%
Sacramento Kings	117		Comeback	2.1 [814]		LVP	Voshon Lenard (DEN): -15.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	17	73%	0.22	4	-0.11	7	100%	0.05
Earl Boykins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	8	35%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	0.02
Francisco Elson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Trepagnier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	-0.00	14	61%	0.05	2	-0.07	5	40%	-0.06
Chris Andersen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Marcus Camby	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	11	54%	0.01	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Rodney White	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	2	17%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	17	58%	0.07	7	-0.16	4	50%	-0.01
Voshon Lenard	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	11	46%	-0.02	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.02	-0.02	7	82%	0.15	2	-0.06	3	67%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	12	56%	0.06	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.04
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.02	0.05	24	58%	0.08	2	-0.05	9	78%	0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	13	54%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	10	62%	0.07	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	79%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	-0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.0	2.6	24.5	15.7	29.6	1.8	31.6	126.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +28.6%

SAC +10.2%

DEN -16.8%

SAC +24.7%

SAC +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	15.1	13.7	15.7	106.0	117.0	100.5
season	14.9	14.7		101.6	106.9
opponent	15.6	15.4		102.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	14.5	15.1	16.1	15.1
SAC	11.9	13.2	14.3	15.9	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	6	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-8	5	11.7	15.3	-3.64	8.9	14.1	-5.22
Jeff Trepagnier	6	6	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.06	-1	-10	9	13.0	15.2	-2.22	11.7	13.8	-2.17
Francisco Elson	10	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-9	7	12.3	15.4	-3.10	13.6	13.7	-0.12
Rodney White	13	14	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-7	3	13.7	15.3	-1.61	13.4	13.8	-0.33
Chris Andersen	28	30	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.09	-3	-8	5	13.3	15.8	-2.51	12.1	14.4	-2.35
Earl Boykins	35	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-8	5	14.3	15.5	-1.19	12.7	14.3	-1.58
Nene	81	79	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-7	3	15.6	13.1	2.52	14.2	11.9	2.29
Voshon Lenard	70	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-3	-5	15.2	14.9	0.22	13.6	13.9	-0.32
Carmelo Anthony	88	87	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-5	-1	15.3	13.6	1.71	13.8	13.2	0.55
Marcus Camby	74	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.06	-11	0	-11	15.9	12.8	3.14	14.3	12.1	2.24
Andre Miller	89	89	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	-1	-9	15.5	11.9	3.57	14.3	8.7	5.60

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Massenburg	55	55	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	1	9	13.1	14.5	-1.42	15.1	15.1	0.04
Mike Bibby	71	70	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.11	9	2	7	13.9	13.3	0.51	14.4	16.7	-2.35
Doug Christie	71	74	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.11	9	2	7	14.1	12.9	1.19	16.1	12.3	3.76
Peja Stojakovic	88	85	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.15	7	4	3	14.0	11.6	2.42	14.7	17.2	-2.48
Vlade Divac	67	67	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.03	10	1	9	14.0	13.1	0.97	15.9	13.5	2.35
Bobby Jackson	43	44	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	7	-3	12.8	14.4	-1.65	14.9	15.2	-0.36
Brad Miller	78	78	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.17	2	9	-7	13.9	13.1	0.79	14.4	17.5	-3.09
Anthony Peeler	27	27	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	7	-3	13.0	14.0	-1.02	15.7	14.8	0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.81,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.63,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.78,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 71, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.87,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1	95.1%
SAC 100, DAL 110	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.9,0.81,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1,1	94.1%
HOU 100, PHI 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.43,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.83,0.71,0.73,0.85,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.7%