NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	76		Excitement	4.7 [860]		MVP	Aaron McKie (PHI): +12.3%
Philadelphia 76ers	87		Comeback	3.4 [636]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -10.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.03	17	59%	0.09	4	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Loren Woods	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	19	45%	0.04	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Rafer Alston	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	7	36%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	0.00	0.04	13	57%	0.05	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	8	12%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.08	0.04	12	71%	0.18	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.00	5	70%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.01	9	68%	0.13	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.04
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.04	-0.03	7	57%	0.07	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	14	61%	0.06	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Coleman	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	8	37%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.4	27.6	15.4	24.6	1.8	30.2	125.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +55.5%

MIA -6.1%

PHI +6.3%

MIA -8.0%

PHI +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	18.1	17.9	15.7	95.0	108.7	100.5
season	16.2	16.2		99.3	96.7
opponent	15.8	15.9		99.5	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.3	20.7	18.4	16.3	18.1
PHI	15.4	19.3	19.5	18.0	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Allen	6	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	6.0	19.0	-13.04	16.7	18.0	-1.37
Rasual Butler	8	9	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.07	2	-13	15	8.9	19.1	-10.21	17.4	18.0	-0.56
Caron Butler	50	49	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-8	5	18.4	17.4	1.01	16.8	19.7	-2.89
Udonis Haslem	34	33	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.03	-6	-5	-1	19.1	17.3	1.89	19.1	17.1	1.96
Loren Woods	19	19	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	-5	-1	22.0	16.8	5.16	20.3	17.2	3.05
Lamar Odom	48	50	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	-9	7	17.4	19.1	-1.77	17.9	17.9	0.01
Rafer Alston	35	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.08	-7	-4	-3	20.2	16.4	3.85	18.4	17.6	0.82
Brian Grant	59	58	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-3	-5	18.6	16.5	2.09	17.3	19.7	-2.47
Dwyane Wade	74	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	0	-11	17.7	22.0	-4.26	17.3	24.6	-7.27
Eddie Jones	67	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	3	-17	17.5	20.8	-3.23	18.7	13.0	5.72

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samuel Dalembert	36	36	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.21	13	-2	15	19.1	17.0	2.03	20.4	16.1	4.33
Aaron McKie	67	64	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	1	9	17.7	18.9	-1.18	17.8	19.0	-1.17
Eric Snow	66	67	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	2	7	19.0	13.1	5.81	17.6	20.5	-2.86
Kyle Korver	25	25	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.13	6	5	1	17.1	18.3	-1.25	19.5	17.4	2.12
John Salmons	32	33	0.28	0.21	0.07	0.14	5	6	-1	16.5	18.9	-2.34	18.4	17.9	0.51
Kenny Thomas	66	66	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.27	-2	13	-15	17.5	20.1	-2.59	18.1	18.1	-0.01
Derrick Coleman	49	50	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.13	10	1	9	17.4	18.8	-1.42	17.1	19.7	-2.62
Glenn Robinson	54	55	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	8	-5	17.8	18.2	-0.43	17.1	20.1	-2.93
Zendon Hamilton	5	4	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	10	-9	25.2	17.5	7.75	21.5	17.9	3.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 82, NJN 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.9%
MIL 101, MIN 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.29,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
CHI 88, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.24,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%