NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	6.5 [501]		MVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): +24.7%
Portland Trail Blazers	99		Comeback	2.7 [187]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (POR): -13.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.16	0.09	0.01	10	96%	0.31	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	15	61%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Desmond Mason	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.06	-0.03	9	60%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Michael Redd	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	17	61%	0.16	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Santiago	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Haislip	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	3	33%	-0.01	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	10	41%	-0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	8	48%	-0.06	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.05

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	9	67%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.00	-0.01	22	61%	0.13	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.02	0.01	17	60%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	58%	0.03	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	12	33%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	13	50%	-0.03	3	-0.10	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	1.5	25.9	15.0	24.5	1.8	29.2	119.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +40.5%

POR -2.0%

MIL +2.0%

MIL +6.5%

MIL +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	POR	NBA	MIL	POR	NBA
this game	14.7	16.3	15.7	114.0	106.5	100.5
season	15.3	17.1		103.6	101.5
opponent	15.7	15.5		103.2	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.6	13.6	13.6	17.3	14.7
POR	16.0	15.2	17.1	17.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	57	56	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.33	14	-7	21	14.8	14.4	0.43	16.5	15.9	0.62
Joe Smith	71	70	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.33	13	-6	19	15.0	13.6	1.42	16.7	15.0	1.66
Michael Redd	75	74	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.28	10	-3	13	14.6	15.0	-0.40	16.7	14.8	1.82
T.J. Ford	60	59	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.27	8	-1	9	15.6	13.1	2.51	16.8	15.4	1.38
Daniel Santiago	35	35	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.06	7	0	7	14.4	14.8	-0.44	16.6	16.1	0.50
Desmond Mason	48	48	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.26	-1	8	-9	15.0	14.3	0.75	16.3	16.3	-0.04
Damon Jones	40	40	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	10	-13	14.1	15.1	-1.06	16.2	16.3	-0.11
Erick Strickland	11	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.02	-1	8	-9	12.5	15.0	-2.42	12.1	17.0	-4.90
Marcus Haislip	22	23	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.04	-6	13	-19	13.6	15.0	-1.42	15.0	16.7	-1.66
Dan Gadzuric	46	47	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.06	-6	13	-19	14.3	15.0	-0.74	15.8	16.8	-1.02

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Davis	43	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-4	1	16.4	16.2	0.24	14.3	15.1	-0.80
Wesley Person	50	52	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.28	4	-11	15	16.2	16.4	-0.28	15.2	14.0	1.12
Vladimir Stepania	22	21	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	0	-7	16.3	16.3	0.04	13.9	14.9	-1.00
Ruben Patterson	44	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.22	0	-7	7	16.5	16.1	0.48	15.7	13.8	1.95
Jeff McInnis	66	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.11	-7	0	-7	15.7	17.8	-2.10	14.0	16.4	-2.49
Rasheed Wallace	84	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.21	-8	1	-9	16.2	17.3	-1.15	14.4	16.7	-2.27
Zach Randolph	78	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.31	-7	0	-7	16.5	15.0	1.54	14.9	13.7	1.20
Damon Stoudamire	78	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.31	-7	0	-7	16.5	15.0	1.54	14.9	13.7	1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.33,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.3,0.22,0.19,0.04,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 93, WAS 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.33,0.2,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	92.6%
DAL 102, MIN 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.52,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.53,0.57,0.42,0.31,0.19,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0	92.3%
GSW 98, HOU 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.73,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.3,0.2,0.16,0.3,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.22,0.1,0.06,0.02,0,0	92.3%