NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	81		Excitement	6.9 [423]		MVP	Baron Davis (NOH): +25.7%
Indiana Pacers	71		Comeback	2.5 [287]		LVP	Al Harrington (IND): -19.0%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.26	0.10	0.16	0.00	14	71%	0.32	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Moiso	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	80%	0.15	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	12	47%	0.03	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.03
Stacey Augmon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.02	5	43%	-0.05	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	9	50%	-0.05	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Jamal Mashburn	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.05	-0.03	22	33%	-0.11	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.05

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	83%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	20	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	11	35%	-0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	0.00	7	40%	-0.10	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.03
Al Harrington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	20	46%	-0.09	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.6	27.6	16.3	23.5	2.8	35.2	133.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +44.4%

NOH +7.6%

NOH +9.8%

IND -10.8%

IND -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	IND	NBA	NOH	IND	NBA
this game	15.7	17.1	15.5	91.0	81.6	101.6
season	15.9	15.4		101.6	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.6		99.2	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	14.2	16.8	16.2	15.5	15.7
IND	17.1	18.4	17.3	15.8	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	43	43	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.15	16	-6	22	15.8	15.5	0.31	16.7	17.5	-0.73
Jamaal Magloire	55	56	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	0	10	16.1	14.9	1.20	17.2	16.9	0.24
David Wesley	71	70	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	-3	16	15.3	16.9	-1.55	16.6	19.1	-2.52
Jamal Mashburn	76	74	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.19	7	3	4	15.2	18.5	-3.29	17.1	17.2	-0.07
P.J. Brown	74	71	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.16	7	3	4	14.9	19.2	-4.27	16.3	20.7	-4.48
Stacey Augmon	40	38	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.10	11	-1	12	14.7	16.4	-1.64	16.7	17.4	-0.72
Jerome Moiso	15	16	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	7	-4	19.2	14.9	4.27	20.7	16.3	4.48
Kenny Anderson	24	22	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	11	-12	16.2	15.4	0.82	19.2	16.4	2.80
Robert Traylor	30	28	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	14	-18	16.7	15.1	1.58	17.9	16.7	1.18
George Lynch	17	17	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	0.05	-12	22	-34	16.6	15.4	1.23	16.7	17.2	-0.48

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	26	27	0.28	-0.78	1.05	-0.05	11	-21	32	18.8	16.4	2.45	17.8	14.7	3.05
Ron Mercer	19	20	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.02	6	-16	22	19.1	16.5	2.51	15.9	15.6	0.38
Jeff Foster	21	21	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.11	-3	-7	4	18.6	16.6	1.95	13.3	16.4	-3.10
Reggie Miller	63	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-6	2	16.0	20.0	-4.07	15.6	15.9	-0.29
Metta World Peace	49	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.16	-9	-1	-8	17.8	16.1	1.71	15.9	15.3	0.63
Al Harrington	78	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.19	-9	-1	-8	16.5	22.4	-5.97	15.2	19.9	-4.71
Jermaine O'Neal	72	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.22	-9	-1	-8	17.0	17.5	-0.53	16.6	11.4	5.14
Jonathan Bender	39	38	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.12	-17	7	-24	17.4	16.8	0.62	14.4	16.5	-2.10
Erick Strickland	68	69	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.23	-16	6	-22	16.5	19.1	-2.51	15.6	15.9	-0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.1,0.16,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 100, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.04,0	91.4%
LAC 96, CHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.55,0.44,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.04,0.01,0,0	91.4%
TOR 102, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.42,0.21,0.34,0.33,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.04,0	91.4%