NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	75		Excitement	5.4 [726]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +15.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	88		Comeback	2.1 [1008]		LVP	Nikoloz Tskitishvili (DEN): -15.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	10	70%	0.11	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vincent Yarbrough	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.02	-0.04	11	32%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	10	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.03	0.03	13	56%	-0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Junior Harrington	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	13	38%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	13	50%	-0.02	4	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	6	0%	-0.15	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.05	-0.04	16	74%	0.25	5	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	11	82%	0.18	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Sampson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Haislip	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	15	52%	0.00	1	-0.04	10	80%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	0.02	0.01	11	46%	0.02	5	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.5	2.3	25.3	15.8	26.3	2.3	28.6	120.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +56.1%

MIL +15.2%

DEN -12.5%

DEN -6.8%

DEN -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	17.7	16.2	15.5	87.2	104.8	101.6
season	15.7	15.4		90.4	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.3		106.5	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	18.2	19.4	20.0	13.9	17.7
MIL	18.7	16.6	14.2	15.5	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	10	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-13	13	17.3	17.7	-0.44	18.3	15.9	2.41
Donnell Harvey	57	55	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.03	-2	-11	9	17.4	18.2	-0.79	15.5	17.5	-1.99
John Crotty	14	14	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-9	5	19.6	17.3	2.25	15.7	16.3	-0.56
Rodney White	20	21	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-12	11	16.5	18.0	-1.55	17.7	15.7	1.98
Junior Harrington	69	67	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	-7	1	17.6	18.0	-0.39	16.4	15.3	1.11
Juwan Howard	69	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-8	3	17.7	17.5	0.20	15.8	17.7	-1.94
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	24	24	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	-5	-3	18.5	17.4	1.07	16.5	16.0	0.51
Nene	68	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-4	-5	17.1	19.9	-2.79	16.8	13.9	2.88
Chris Andersen	30	28	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.02	-15	2	-17	18.9	17.0	1.92	16.0	16.3	-0.32
Vincent Yarbrough	69	66	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.06	-15	2	-17	17.7	17.5	0.20	15.6	18.4	-2.81

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	53	53	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.17	14	-1	15	16.0	16.5	-0.48	17.4	18.2	-0.76
Sam Cassell	61	64	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.01	18	-5	23	15.6	17.8	-2.27	18.5	15.2	3.30
Michael Redd	68	72	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	1	11	16.2	16.1	0.07	17.2	20.3	-3.11
Anthony Mason	63	66	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.05	13	0	13	15.0	19.8	-4.84	18.5	14.9	3.57
Kevin Ollie	39	40	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.11	8	5	3	16.8	15.7	1.10	16.4	18.8	-2.45
Ray Allen	68	69	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.10	2	11	-9	16.4	15.2	1.15	17.4	18.8	-1.42
Ervin Johnson	49	48	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	13	-13	18.0	13.6	4.37	19.6	15.3	4.25
Jamal Sampson	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	14.5	16.3	-1.76	5.5	18.3	-12.78
Marcus Haislip	15	14	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.01	-2	15	-17	16.3	16.1	0.19	15.8	18.1	-2.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 92, PHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.7%
ORL 105, OKC 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.78,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.99,1	94.6%
PHX 101, DAL 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.92,0.77,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.99,1	94.5%