NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	81		Excitement	7.8 [279]		MVP	Predrag Drobnjak (SEA): +15.1%
Seattle SuperSonics	85		Comeback	3.0 [220]		LVP	Raef LaFrentz (DAL): -14.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.2,0.09	-0.05	0.14	-0.00	17	44%	0.15	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Raja Bell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Adrian Griffin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	0.00	11	54%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.05
Antoine Rigaudeau	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	13	45%	0.01	3	-0.13	5	100%	0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	16	42%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Raef LaFrentz	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	13	36%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.10

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	13	66%	0.15	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.11	0.01	13	63%	0.20	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.02
Brent Barry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.00	-0.01	7	93%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.07	-0.00	11	57%	0.14	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ansu Sesay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.14	0.01	-0.05	17	35%	0.04	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	12	25%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	41.8	1.6	30.1	14.7	25.2	1.6	34.0	149.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +47.3%

SEA +2.0%

SEA +16.0%

DAL -12.3%

DAL -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SEA	NBA	DAL	SEA	NBA
this game	16.0	17.1	15.5	94.2	96.6	101.6
season	15.1	16.5		108.6	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.3		102.0	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.9	16.2	15.3	17.9	16.0
SEA	14.5	17.2	16.7	20.9	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	56	56	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.33	10	-14	24	16.3	15.4	0.89	18.1	15.5	2.58
Shawn Bradley	21	21	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	0	-4	16.8	15.7	1.04	14.0	18.1	-4.03
Steve Nash	64	66	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.43	12	-16	28	15.1	18.5	-3.45	17.0	17.4	-0.33
Raja Bell	14	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	2	-8	16.7	15.8	0.88	18.0	16.9	1.08
Antoine Rigaudeau	9	10	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.04	-9	5	-14	15.9	16.0	-0.10	19.4	16.8	2.58
Walt Williams	10	11	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.02	-9	5	-14	15.0	16.1	-1.11	17.9	17.0	0.91
Michael Finley	80	80	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.41	2	-6	8	16.1	14.8	1.23	16.7	21.4	-4.69
Nick Van Exel	60	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.45	3	-7	10	15.5	17.0	-1.52	18.6	13.5	5.18
Dirk Nowitzki	81	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.42	-2	-2	0	15.5	23.6	-8.09	17.2	15.2	1.95
Adrian Griffin	35	34	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.04	-17	13	-30	18.3	14.4	3.94	14.3	18.9	-4.64

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	65	64	1.09	-0.59	1.67	0.41	23	-19	42	17.4	16.2	1.21	16.8	13.6	3.21
Predrag Drobnjak	62	61	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.40	18	-14	32	18.1	14.7	3.38	16.9	13.7	3.18
Gary Payton	73	72	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.48	-4	8	-12	16.8	18.8	-2.03	15.5	18.4	-2.84
Desmond Mason	53	50	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.15	6	-2	8	17.2	17.0	0.14	16.4	15.3	1.11
Kenny Anderson	53	50	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	6	-8	18.8	14.5	4.27	15.7	16.3	-0.57
Rashard Lewis	73	71	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	6	-8	16.8	18.7	-1.87	15.6	17.9	-2.29
Jerome James	15	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	4	-4	13.7	17.8	-4.16	14.5	16.3	-1.83
Ansu Sesay	30	31	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.13	-8	12	-20	14.7	18.3	-3.61	15.3	16.4	-1.12
Vitaly Potapenko	16	16	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	-0.07	-11	15	-26	16.9	17.2	-0.29	15.1	16.2	-1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.5,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.5,0.52,0.4,0.51,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.56,0.52,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 88, NYK 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.19,0.25,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.81,0.98,0.96,0.98,1	89.9%
OKC 99, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.54,0.6,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.48,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.73,1	89.7%
NOP 99, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.94,0.92,1	89.3%