NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	118		Excitement	4.4 [925]		MVP	Andrei Kirilenko (UTA): +11.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	115		Comeback	1.7 [706]		LVP	Anthony Mason (MIL): -8.3%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.03	-0.02	11	66%	0.12	0	0.00	10	60%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	11	59%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.00	10	77%	0.09	3	-0.07	6	67%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.05	-0.05	14	51%	0.06	4	-0.06	11	91%	0.03
Scott Padgett	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.01	-0.06	18	44%	0.01	2	-0.03	7	43%	-0.01
Greg Ostertag	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.12	-0.00	0.07	12	85%	0.10	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	18	55%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	14	72%	0.10	6	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.01	5	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	0.07	17	64%	0.04	5	-0.11	11	100%	0.03
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.01	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.4	2.2	25.6	15.4	30.1	1.5	35.5	140.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +13.5%

UTA +6.9%

UTA +18.5%

UTA +16.7%

MIL -5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIL	NBA	UTA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.7	14.3	15.5	126.9	123.7	101.6
season	16.3	15.4		103.1	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.3		106.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.3	16.5	15.3	18.7	16.7
MIL	15.7	14.8	13.5	13.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	76	77	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.37	5	-2	7	16.2	18.6	-2.42	14.3	14.4	-0.16
Matt Harpring	70	71	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.29	6	-3	9	16.6	16.8	-0.15	14.1	15.0	-0.92
Greg Ostertag	49	49	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.02	14	-11	25	15.2	18.3	-3.09	14.3	14.3	-0.03
John Stockton	61	60	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.43	-2	5	-7	16.3	17.4	-1.13	13.8	15.1	-1.27
Andrei Kirilenko	71	70	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.31	1	2	-1	17.0	15.5	1.59	14.2	14.7	-0.52
Mark Jackson	36	36	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	-1	5	17.1	16.4	0.63	14.5	14.2	0.37
Calbert Cheaney	58	58	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.55	-13	16	-29	17.3	15.6	1.66	14.4	14.1	0.30
Tony Massenburg	27	28	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	1	1	17.4	16.3	1.10	15.6	13.7	1.92
Scott Padgett	17	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	5	-7	18.6	16.2	2.42	14.4	14.3	0.16

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	26	27	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.14	-9	6	-15	12.7	14.9	-2.18	17.9	16.2	1.67
Kevin Ollie	35	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.10	-2	-1	-1	15.3	13.7	1.58	15.0	17.6	-2.58
Michael Redd	74	73	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.42	8	-11	19	13.9	15.9	-2.07	17.1	15.1	2.00
Dan Gadzuric	36	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	1	-5	14.6	14.1	0.42	16.1	17.0	-0.84
Jason Caffey	41	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	3	-9	15.5	13.4	2.12	16.5	16.8	-0.28
Tim Thomas	48	51	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-3	3	15.1	13.4	1.75	17.4	15.8	1.61
Sam Cassell	71	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.56	7	-10	17	13.5	16.8	-3.30	16.8	16.1	0.68
Anthony Mason	63	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.28	-6	3	-9	14.1	14.6	-0.49	16.1	17.7	-1.56
Ray Allen	71	70	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	0	-3	14.4	14.1	0.28	16.7	16.6	0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.52,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.2,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 114, MIL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
BOS 120, CLE 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
SAS 127, DEN 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%