NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	99		Excitement	6.6 [483]		MVP	Troy Murphy (GSW): +6.9%
Los Angeles Clippers	92		Comeback	1.1 [374]		LVP	Corey Maggette (LAC): -19.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.00	6	69%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	16	57%	0.04	2	-0.03	8	62%	0.02
Mike Dunleavy	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	-0.04	19	49%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	27	47%	-0.02	2	-0.05	6	83%	-0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	13	54%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tremaine Fowlkes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	58%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	13	59%	0.06	3	-0.12	13	85%	-0.02
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.15,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	19	45%	-0.03	3	-0.09	9	56%	-0.04
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.19	-0.19	-0.04	-0.15	0.00	11	55%	-0.12	2	-0.08	11	82%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.3	27.3	17.8	30.0	2.0	37.3	144.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +15.1%

LAC -11.6%

GSW +41.5%

GSW +3.0%

GSW +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	LAC	NBA	GSW	LAC	NBA
this game	17.0	14.6	15.5	108.8	101.1	101.6
season	14.6	15.4		105.3	100.2
opponent	15.4	15.1		104.3	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	18.2	18.3	17.2	17.0
LAC	16.2	16.1	13.5	12.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	73	73	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.09	24	-17	41	16.4	19.7	-3.30	15.2	12.5	2.65
Gilbert Arenas	74	73	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.16	17	-10	27	16.2	20.4	-4.17	14.0	17.3	-3.37
Antawn Jamison	80	81	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.19	9	-2	11	17.7	11.8	5.92	15.2	10.0	5.20
Troy Murphy	67	68	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.26	6	1	5	16.8	17.7	-0.88	14.3	15.6	-1.26
Erick Dampier	36	37	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.07	15	-8	23	15.6	17.9	-2.29	15.0	14.4	0.58
Adonal Foyle	62	61	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	8	-9	17.3	16.3	0.99	14.8	14.3	0.44
Earl Boykins	28	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.16	-6	13	-19	16.6	17.2	-0.60	14.3	14.7	-0.42
Mike Dunleavy	13	13	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.15	-10	17	-27	19.5	16.6	2.94	12.4	15.0	-2.62
Bob Sura	22	22	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	0.23	-19	26	-45	20.3	16.0	4.35	14.7	14.6	0.07

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tremaine Fowlkes	33	35	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.24	9	-16	25	16.5	13.6	2.87	17.8	16.5	1.31
Keyon Dooling	16	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-6	5	17.8	13.9	3.87	17.3	17.0	0.35
Corey Maggette	58	59	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.35	6	-13	19	13.1	17.2	-4.10	17.6	15.9	1.72
Andre Miller	84	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-4	1	14.3	18.6	-4.27	17.2	14.9	2.35
Lamar Odom	72	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	1	-9	13.9	17.3	-3.33	17.3	16.0	1.39
Quentin Richardson	26	26	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	9	-25	16.6	13.8	2.78	13.6	18.4	-4.77
Michael Olowokandi	86	85	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.25	-10	3	-13	14.8	11.8	2.99	16.7	22.0	-5.33
Elton Brand	80	81	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.24	-12	5	-17	14.5	15.8	-1.36	17.1	16.0	1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.22,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, POR 91	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.23,0.07,0.07,0.08,0	92.4%
PHI 98, NJN 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.17,0.01,0	92.3%
GSW 111, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.15,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.23,0.17,0.11,0.22,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.27,0	92.2%