NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	99		Excitement	7.3 [350]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (WAS): +75.8%
Washington Wizards	100		Comeback	4.8 [239]		LVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): -13.3%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.66	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.66	0.03	0.63	0.00	7	72%	0.69	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Brian Shaw	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22	0.15	0.09	0.01	11	91%	0.27	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	64%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Soumaila Samake	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	3	67%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	21	51%	-0.01	2	-0.06	11	100%	0.05
Samaki Walker	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	8	39%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rick Fox	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.14,-0.2,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	11	40%	-0.06	1	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
Derek Fisher	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	10	24%	-0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.76	0.76	-0.05	0.78	-0.03	23	51%	0.82	3	-0.07	11	100%	0.09
Michael Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	14	62%	0.08	2	-0.03	12	58%	-0.06
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	71%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	11	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	9	59%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	12	35%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	270.0	2.5	29.3	16.7	26.2	3.5	42.7	390.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +10.7%

WAS +6.2%

WAS +13.9%

WAS +15.3%

WAS +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	WAS	NBA	LAL	WAS	NBA
this game	15.7	16.1	15.5	108.8	111.1	101.6
season	15.4	16.5		105.0	100.9
opponent	15.5	15.1		101.9	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.6	17.9	17.0	12.4	15.7
WAS	16.9	15.7	17.3	14.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jannero Pargo	14	15	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.05	3	-4	7	15.9	15.7	0.14	15.2	16.3	-1.07
Kareem Rush	12	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-3	5	14.9	15.9	-0.94	17.6	15.8	1.78
Brian Shaw	42	42	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.52	16	-17	33	14.0	17.2	-3.18	15.3	16.8	-1.55
Soumaila Samake	5	5	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	4	-9	17.2	15.7	1.55	17.8	16.0	1.81
Slava Medvedenko	39	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-1	1	15.8	15.7	0.10	15.2	16.7	-1.57
Rick Fox	58	57	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.31	2	-3	5	16.5	14.4	2.06	15.1	17.7	-2.59
Devean George	29	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	4	-9	14.6	16.3	-1.69	18.0	15.2	2.77
Robert Horry	74	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.49	7	-8	15	15.5	16.6	-1.05	16.8	13.0	3.76
Samaki Walker	46	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.01	-14	13	-27	17.3	14.1	3.21	16.9	15.3	1.56
Derek Fisher	63	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	3	-7	15.7	15.7	-0.02	16.0	16.4	-0.43
Kobe Bryant	73	71	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.37	-7	6	-13	15.8	15.6	0.16	15.8	17.3	-1.49

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerry Stackhouse	71	73	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.37	7	-6	13	15.8	17.3	-1.49	15.8	15.6	0.16
Brendan Haywood	51	51	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.05	20	-19	39	16.8	15.2	1.60	17.3	13.7	3.59
Larry Hughes	77	75	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	-4	9	16.1	16.1	0.01	15.9	15.0	0.89
Christian Laettner	47	46	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.15	6	-5	11	16.2	16.0	0.17	17.0	14.4	2.60
Michael Jordan	59	61	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.52	-7	8	-15	14.5	19.1	-4.64	15.8	15.7	0.05
Bryon Russell	53	54	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.48	-11	12	-23	17.0	14.8	2.17	14.2	17.9	-3.72
Tyronn Lue	35	38	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.30	-8	9	-17	14.9	16.9	-1.97	14.4	16.7	-2.21
Kwame Brown	57	57	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.25	-7	8	-15	17.4	13.9	3.44	15.3	16.4	-1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.81,0.89,0.86,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 97, ATL 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.94,0.87,0.95,1,1,0.99,1	94.6%
CHI 90, MEM 104	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.84,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
ORL 92, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	94.4%