NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	104		Excitement	4.3 [941]		MVP	Ron Mercer (IND): +12.1%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	1.0 [562]		LVP	Chris Gatling (MIA): -8.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.01	9	74%	0.12	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.02
Jeff Foster	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	7	88%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.01	15	54%	0.05	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01
Reggie Miller	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.06	0.01	0.05	11	67%	0.04	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	7	56%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Ollie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	4	56%	0.03	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	3	56%	-0.01	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.14	0.00	0.03	12	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	13	54%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	45%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	17	53%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	0.07	15	59%	0.00	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.5	32.5	16.4	25.4	2.4	32.2	140.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +36.1%

IND +17.1%

IND +0.8%

MIA -0.4%

MIA -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	16.3	16.3	15.6	118.2	105.6	102.3
season	15.3	16.5		101.6	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.4		98.2	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.2	14.2	19.4	18.8	16.3
MIA	18.1	17.1	14.2	15.5	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	73	74	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	-2	14	15.4	20.7	-5.30	15.4	20.4	-4.97
Jamaal Tinsley	65	66	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.08	13	-3	16	14.3	21.9	-7.58	15.8	17.5	-1.69
Jonathan Bender	52	51	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	0	10	17.8	14.0	3.85	17.0	15.3	1.71
Ron Mercer	36	36	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.09	9	1	8	14.4	17.5	-3.09	15.9	16.5	-0.55
Reggie Miller	63	64	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.16	1	9	-8	16.5	15.6	0.88	15.2	19.0	-3.80
Brad Miller	51	50	0.15	0.34	-0.19	0.27	-4	14	-18	17.2	15.1	2.10	16.0	16.7	-0.71
Austin Croshere	20	20	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	8	-6	18.7	15.6	3.14	19.1	15.4	3.65
Metta World Peace	34	36	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	5	0	14.5	17.4	-2.84	17.1	15.7	1.41
Jeff Foster	19	20	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	9	-8	19.3	15.4	3.88	19.7	15.3	4.42
Kevin Ollie	27	28	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	9	-8	18.9	15.1	3.77	16.0	16.4	-0.34

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Stepania	4	4	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-7	4	17.7	16.2	1.55	14.2	16.4	-2.12
LaPhonso Ellis	14	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-6	2	17.9	16.0	1.97	15.7	16.4	-0.66
Eddie House	41	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-12	14	16.0	16.5	-0.55	17.9	14.9	3.05
Brian Grant	50	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-9	8	16.7	15.7	1.03	17.5	14.6	2.91
Kendall Gill	32	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	-2	-6	16.7	16.0	0.75	14.4	17.3	-2.91
Chris Gatling	30	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-3	-4	18.7	15.0	3.72	16.5	16.2	0.35
Jim Jackson	48	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-2	-6	16.2	16.3	-0.04	14.9	17.8	-2.94
Eddie Jones	76	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-5	0	15.6	20.3	-4.73	16.1	17.3	-1.20
Alonzo Mourning	78	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.22	-6	-4	-2	16.1	17.7	-1.66	16.6	13.7	2.91
Rod Strickland	72	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.23	-10	0	-10	15.4	19.8	-4.32	16.1	17.0	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.32,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.09,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 86, PHI 75	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	95.4%
HOU 96, NJN 89	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.19,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.0%
GSW 107, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.22,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.01,0	94.8%