NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	77		Excitement	5.6 [697]		MVP	Jake Tsakalidis (PHX): +6.3%
Dallas Mavericks	81		Comeback	2.3 [881]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (PHX): -23.8%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jake Tsakalidis	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	10	65%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	12	41%	-0.03	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Milt Palacio	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
John Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	11	42%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	11	36%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	6	29%	-0.06	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.24	-0.16	-0.09	-0.01	21	31%	-0.18	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	3	60%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.05	21	48%	0.07	3	-0.05	8	75%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.04	15	36%	-0.06	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.11,-0.09,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.03	-0.02	25	51%	0.07	8	-0.23	9	89%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.7	26.4	16.6	24.2	2.5	30.5	125.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +40.5%

DAL +3.6%

DAL +19.8%

PHX -12.7%

PHX -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	DAL	NBA	PHX	DAL	NBA
this game	15.0	13.7	15.6	76.2	81.0	102.3
season	15.1	14.8		101.0	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		105.8	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	15.5	14.0	15.6	15.0	15.0
DAL	15.1	12.7	13.2	13.8	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	26	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-6	8	14.0	15.4	-1.40	13.8	13.6	0.19
Bo Outlaw	27	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-3	2	14.4	15.2	-0.76	15.2	13.1	2.12
Dan Majerle	16	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-3	2	14.6	15.1	-0.52	11.2	14.1	-2.88
Tom Gugliotta	76	77	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.33	7	-11	18	15.3	14.0	1.28	13.8	13.2	0.62
Anfernee Hardaway	32	32	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.29	4	-8	12	14.6	15.2	-0.64	14.2	13.4	0.84
Jake Tsakalidis	60	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-8	12	15.0	15.0	-0.08	14.3	12.6	1.71
John Wallace	27	26	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	11	-26	14.7	15.1	-0.40	11.6	14.4	-2.80
Stephon Marbury	82	84	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.37	-2	-2	0	14.5	17.3	-2.85	13.8	12.7	1.15
Joe Johnson	72	69	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	10	-24	16.2	12.1	4.11	12.9	15.3	-2.38
Shawn Marion	87	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	0	-4	15.1	14.4	0.66	13.8	12.6	1.21

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	87	89	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.32	9	-5	14	13.4	15.5	-2.17	14.8	16.7	-1.89
Michael Finley	100	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	13.6	0.0	13.65	15.0	0.0	15.00
Nick Van Exel	61	63	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	2	0	13.7	13.6	0.10	14.8	15.4	-0.59
Raef LaFrentz	83	83	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.38	1	3	-2	14.3	10.5	3.83	15.0	15.1	-0.07
Johnny Newman	48	49	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.36	-7	11	-18	14.4	12.9	1.51	15.2	14.8	0.48
Steve Nash	57	57	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	1	2	12.7	14.9	-2.12	15.0	15.0	0.00
Eduardo Najera	29	29	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	1	2	13.9	13.5	0.40	15.2	14.9	0.29
Avery Johnson	2	1	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.03	0	4	-4	5.0	13.8	-8.83	18.0	15.0	3.03
Shawn Bradley	8	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	8	-12	14.0	13.6	0.38	14.9	15.0	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 86, UTA 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.74,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.95,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
SEA 101, SAC 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
LAL 83, TOR 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.84,0.79,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%