NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	112		Excitement	7.7 [283]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +15.2%
New Jersey Nets	100		Comeback	1.8 [300]		LVP	Richard Jefferson (NJN): -20.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.09	0.01	9	90%	0.27	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.09	0.01	17	56%	0.15	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.05
Adrian Griffin	0.11	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.01	9	78%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Danny Manning	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	6	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Johnny Newman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	60%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Michael Finley	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	9	50%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tim Hardaway	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.02,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	12	39%	-0.06	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Scalabrine	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	9	39%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.07	-0.08	0.01	17	58%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Todd MacCulloch	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	25	48%	0.02	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	15	44%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	7	35%	-0.10	2	-0.11	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.3	25.6	14.7	27.2	2.4	25.7	120.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +42.3%

DAL +23.6%

NJN -24.0%

DAL +6.6%

DAL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	NJN	NBA	DAL	NJN	NBA
this game	14.9	14.8	15.6	116.7	102.0	102.3
season	14.8	14.7		109.6	101.4
opponent	16.0	15.5		98.0	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.8	13.8	16.8	16.6	14.9
NJN	14.8	14.4	12.7	17.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	80	80	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.17	18	-6	24	14.9	15.1	-0.25	14.4	16.3	-1.84
Steve Nash	83	83	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.18	17	-5	22	14.9	15.3	-0.45	14.8	14.8	-0.03
Tim Hardaway	61	64	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.17	16	-4	20	15.0	14.8	0.23	15.4	13.6	1.86
Wang Zhi-zhi	34	35	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	6	0	17.9	13.3	4.55	13.9	15.3	-1.38
Danny Manning	38	40	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	10	-8	13.3	16.0	-2.65	16.2	13.8	2.36
Shawn Bradley	51	52	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.03	3	9	-6	13.6	16.4	-2.83	16.0	13.4	2.57
Michael Finley	60	61	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	10	-8	15.9	13.3	2.62	14.0	16.1	-2.18
Johnny Newman	26	27	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.05	2	10	-8	13.8	15.3	-1.57	14.4	14.9	-0.51
Adrian Griffin	47	48	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.02	-6	18	-24	15.0	14.9	0.12	13.9	15.6	-1.68

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collins	23	22	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-16	20	16.3	14.3	1.94	15.9	14.6	1.29
Aaron Williams	13	12	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-12	12	13.5	15.0	-1.43	14.9	14.9	-0.00
Brian Scalabrine	7	7	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-12	12	15.6	14.7	0.86	17.3	14.7	2.56
Lucious Harris	39	38	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-11	10	16.4	13.7	2.76	14.2	15.4	-1.26
Todd MacCulloch	54	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-7	2	14.6	15.0	-0.41	14.4	15.7	-1.29
Keith Van Horn	71	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.13	-10	-2	-8	14.0	16.9	-2.92	15.1	14.4	0.73
Kerry Kittles	68	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	-1	-10	13.8	17.0	-3.16	15.3	14.1	1.16
Kenyon Martin	78	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.08	-13	1	-14	14.5	15.9	-1.48	14.6	16.0	-1.37
Richard Jefferson	48	46	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.12	-12	0	-12	16.2	13.4	2.73	14.9	14.9	-0.01
Jason Kidd	89	89	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	0	-12	14.8	14.7	0.12	15.0	14.3	0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.59,0.39,0.38,0.21,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 111, NYK 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.34,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.52,0.4,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.33,0.31,0.08,0.02,0.02,0	92.5%
LAL 101, NOH 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.28,0.39,0.21,0.06,0.02,0	92.4%
HOU 69, OKC 65	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.38,0.36,0.24,0.1,0	91.7%