NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	105		Excitement	8.1 [231]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (MIN): +34.8%
Golden State Warriors	102		Comeback	2.4 [705]		LVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): -28.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.35	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.35	0.16	0.18	-0.00	7	95%	0.35	0	0.00	8	100%	0.05
Anthony Peeler	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.09	0.00	6	56%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Sam Mitchell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	4	57%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Loren Woods	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Felipe Lopez	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	8	43%	-0.05	1	-0.06	5	60%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	19	47%	-0.04	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	18	45%	-0.04	3	-0.14	8	75%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	14	29%	-0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.06	0.07	0.00	3	114%	0.19	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.02	0.00	13	74%	0.19	2	-0.08	5	60%	-0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.01	0.00	14	70%	0.18	2	-0.11	5	80%	-0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	0.03	10	50%	-0.00	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	8	60%	0.05	4	-0.14	4	50%	-0.03
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	4	33%	-0.04	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	10	33%	-0.04	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.28,-0.29	-0.29	-0.16	-0.12	0.01	14	31%	-0.21	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	582.7	2.3	29.3	16.4	-692.7	2.4	36.5	-22.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -33.4%

MIN +24.3%

MIN +23.2%

MIN +33.5%

MIN +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	GSW	NBA	MIN	GSW	NBA
this game	14.8	14.3	15.6	106.1	103.0	102.3
season	15.0	14.7		106.7	100.7
opponent	15.1	16.1		106.2	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.1	15.9	14.0	14.5	14.8
GSW	14.9	14.1	13.2	14.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wally Szczerbiak	81	82	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.42	10	-7	17	15.2	13.3	1.91	14.5	13.2	1.30
Kevin Garnett	77	79	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.42	7	-4	11	14.6	15.5	-0.91	14.7	12.4	2.26
Chauncey Billups	61	63	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.33	7	-4	11	15.1	14.3	0.81	15.3	12.4	2.93
Rasho Nesterovic	63	67	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.35	4	-1	5	14.8	14.9	-0.12	14.7	13.2	1.53
Anthony Peeler	53	53	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.38	-6	9	-15	14.5	15.3	-0.79	13.7	14.9	-1.19
Loren Woods	32	29	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	5	-7	13.8	15.3	-1.56	14.6	14.1	0.42
Joe Smith	57	56	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	1	1	15.3	14.2	1.17	13.5	15.2	-1.73
Dean Garrett	11	9	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	3	-3	16.4	14.6	1.72	13.0	14.4	-1.38
Terrell Brandon	38	36	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	7	-11	14.3	15.1	-0.81	12.4	15.3	-2.93
Sam Mitchell	15	15	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.08	1	2	-1	14.4	14.9	-0.52	11.9	14.7	-2.73
Felipe Lopez	7	6	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	7	-11	15.6	14.8	0.79	17.8	14.0	3.81

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Murphy	35	32	0.22	-0.72	0.93	0.01	7	-10	17	15.3	13.7	1.64	14.4	15.0	-0.64
Gilbert Arenas	17	14	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.02	2	-5	7	11.8	14.8	-2.93	13.2	15.1	-1.89
Bob Sura	57	58	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.35	11	-14	25	13.9	14.7	-0.76	14.1	15.9	-1.86
Adonal Foyle	45	43	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	1	-5	15.1	13.6	1.53	15.5	14.4	1.11
Erick Dampier	46	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-1	-1	14.3	14.2	0.14	15.2	14.4	0.80
Jason Richardson	75	75	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.21	-9	6	-15	14.2	14.3	-0.05	15.4	13.0	2.37
Antawn Jamison	78	78	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	2	-7	14.4	13.5	0.92	14.4	16.4	-2.02
Danny Fortson	66	68	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.44	-7	4	-11	13.7	15.3	-1.58	15.0	14.4	0.66
Larry Hughes	76	78	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.49	-8	5	-13	14.3	14.2	0.10	15.0	14.3	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.49,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.33,0.32,0.15,0.33,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 123, WAS 115	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.21,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.05,0	92.3%
HOU 108, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.01,0	91.8%
BOS 106, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.53,0.38,0.36,0.15,0.05,0	91.5%