NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	90		Excitement	4.8 [846]		MVP	Ryan Bowen (DEN): +15.3%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	5.9 [96]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -12.0%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.10	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.02	-0.03	14	56%	0.10	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Earl Watson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.04	21	58%	0.06	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.04	12	62%	-0.01	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Shammond Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	11	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	8	62%	-0.00
Brent Barry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	0.00	0.01	9	43%	-0.04	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.07	-0.03	12	64%	0.15	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.03	0.02	18	64%	0.15	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	10	62%	0.02	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.12	0.02	-0.05	14	34%	0.00	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Zendon Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	12	40%	-0.04	2	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	8	37%	-0.08	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.5	28.5	15.8	27.0	2.0	35.2	134.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +19.2%

DEN +3.7%

DEN +33.9%

SEA -7.0%

DEN +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DEN	NBA	SEA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.1	16.2	15.6	97.8	104.3	102.3
season	16.0	16.1		106.3	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.8		105.9	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.4	14.7	19.0	13.9	15.1
DEN	16.0	16.6	14.6	17.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shammond Williams	19	18	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.20	7	-13	20	13.9	15.4	-1.54	15.8	16.3	-0.44
Vladimir Radmanovic	24	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.02	-6	0	-6	15.1	15.1	0.01	16.2	16.2	-0.02
Vin Baker	62	61	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-2	-2	15.7	13.9	1.86	16.3	15.9	0.42
Brent Barry	67	69	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-4	2	15.0	15.4	-0.39	17.1	13.6	3.49
Rashard Lewis	81	82	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-7	8	15.0	15.8	-0.79	16.3	15.2	1.10
Desmond Mason	82	81	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-8	10	14.8	17.4	-2.56	16.2	16.0	0.21
Predrag Drobnjak	21	22	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	7	-20	15.5	15.0	0.52	16.0	16.3	-0.30
Gary Payton	83	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-4	2	15.3	13.8	1.49	16.1	17.3	-1.27
Earl Watson	21	20	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	7	-20	15.2	15.1	0.15	13.2	17.0	-3.75

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	59	58	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.30	13	-7	20	15.5	17.4	-1.93	15.2	14.9	0.28
Avery Johnson	73	70	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.35	11	-5	16	15.9	17.4	-1.56	15.2	14.7	0.52
Ryan Bowen	76	76	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.37	8	-2	10	16.0	17.0	-0.99	15.6	12.8	2.79
Zendon Hamilton	50	50	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.28	7	-1	8	16.6	15.7	0.87	15.3	14.9	0.40
James Posey	79	79	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.33	3	3	0	16.0	17.1	-1.04	14.9	16.5	-1.56
Calbert Cheaney	12	14	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	4	-2	17.5	16.0	1.51	14.2	15.3	-1.07
Chris Andersen	9	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	8	-10	16.8	16.1	0.66	16.7	15.0	1.71
Raef LaFrentz	38	38	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	10	-14	16.8	15.8	1.03	14.8	15.4	-0.61
Nick Van Exel	64	66	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.01	-8	14	-22	16.6	15.3	1.29	14.7	16.3	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.44,0.52,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 95, IND 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.41,0.37,0.6,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.8%
PHX 94, ORL 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.21,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.72,0.87,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.7%
SAC 106, DEN 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.51,0.56,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.94,0.83,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	92.6%