NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	108		Excitement	5.5 [723]		MVP	Wang Zhi-zhi (DAL): +9.6%
Memphis Grizzlies	97		Comeback	1.1 [1026]		LVP	Juwan Howard (DAL): -13.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wang Zhi-zhi	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	14	62%	0.14	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.02	0.03	20	60%	0.09	1	-0.03	13	92%	0.04
Johnny Newman	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	5	79%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	8	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	46%	0.00	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Greg Buckner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	10	30%	-0.05	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.08	-0.02	0.05	9	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	18	60%	0.05	3	-0.05	7	86%	0.02
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.01	0.06	8	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Grant Long	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	43%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	9	55%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	14	50%	0.04	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	26.1	15.7	27.6	2.0	25.2	124.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +19.6%

DAL +7.6%

DAL +12.3%

DAL +9.9%

DAL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MEM	NBA	DAL	MEM	NBA
this game	15.4	16.0	15.6	120.0	104.3	102.3
season	14.8	15.7		109.6	96.0
opponent	15.2	15.5		103.8	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.9	17.8	13.0	17.7	15.4
MEM	13.8	19.1	16.8	15.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Buckner	51	53	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.10	17	-6	23	15.8	15.0	0.76	16.1	16.0	0.06
Dirk Nowitzki	83	85	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	1	9	15.4	16.0	-0.61	16.1	15.1	0.99
Adrian Griffin	64	67	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-2	15	15.1	16.2	-1.07	15.3	17.9	-2.57
Steve Nash	70	71	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.17	7	4	3	15.1	16.7	-1.63	16.3	15.0	1.29
Eduardo Najera	39	40	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	5	1	14.8	15.9	-1.13	16.5	15.6	0.91
Tim Hardaway	52	54	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.16	4	7	-3	16.7	13.6	3.12	15.8	16.4	-0.65
Wang Zhi-zhi	11	12	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	9	-7	15.8	15.4	0.44	19.2	15.6	3.60
Juwan Howard	44	46	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.04	1	10	-9	15.6	15.3	0.35	15.7	16.3	-0.58
Johnny Newman	36	37	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	16	-21	14.8	15.9	-1.09	15.7	16.2	-0.55

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	29	29	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-12	13	15.7	16.2	-0.50	16.2	15.0	1.19
Tony Massenburg	35	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-8	5	19.4	14.0	5.35	17.1	14.4	2.70
Will Solomon	9	7	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-6	1	12.4	16.4	-3.97	13.3	15.6	-2.33
Jason Williams	73	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-5	-1	17.0	12.3	4.69	15.6	14.8	0.75
Brevin Knight	41	39	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	-2	-7	14.6	17.2	-2.63	16.5	14.6	1.90
Pau Gasol	73	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.13	-8	-3	-5	15.8	16.8	-1.04	15.0	17.0	-2.08
Stromile Swift	61	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-3	-5	14.9	18.3	-3.43	14.6	16.9	-2.24
Grant Long	71	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-3	-5	16.7	14.0	2.72	15.1	16.6	-1.55
Rodney Buford	73	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	-2	-7	15.4	18.3	-2.89	15.2	16.2	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 91, GSW 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	94.6%
SEA 107, PHX 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0	94.0%
SAS 91, MIN 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.04,0	93.8%