NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	92		Excitement	6.3 [542]		MVP	Damon Stoudamire (POR): +22.6%
Miami Heat	85		Comeback	6.3 [166]		LVP	Scottie Pippen (POR): -33.2%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Stoudamire	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.23,0.23	0.05	0.17	-0.01	12	67%	0.28	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.03	0.01	19	51%	0.03	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Derek Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Chris Dudley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	9	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Bonzi Wells	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.04	0.03	14	64%	0.01	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.05
Scottie Pippen	-0.33	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.31,-0.36,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.18	-0.15	-0.00	10	13%	-0.24	2	-0.09	3	33%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.01	7	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.01	0.04	15	71%	0.14	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.04
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.05	0.00	6	72%	-0.00	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	11	57%	-0.01	5	-0.10	6	100%	0.04
Jim Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.18	-0.11	-0.03	11	25%	-0.16	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.19,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.29	-0.29	-0.12	-0.19	-0.02	9	33%	-0.08	4	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.0	33.6	15.8	25.7	1.8	37.5	140.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +23.2%

POR +6.9%

MIA -4.2%

POR +26.5%

MIA -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.2	17.9	15.6	108.2	101.2	102.3
season	16.0	16.5		105.0	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.6		98.2	102.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.6	15.5	16.8	16.0	16.2
MIA	16.1	18.1	19.2	18.2	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Anderson	52	52	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.22	18	-11	29	15.6	17.2	-1.56	19.0	16.2	2.81
Bonzi Wells	75	74	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.32	9	-2	11	16.0	17.4	-1.36	17.2	22.9	-5.68
Damon Stoudamire	70	70	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.36	7	0	7	16.4	15.3	1.05	17.9	18.1	-0.21
Rasheed Wallace	69	67	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.30	3	4	-1	15.7	18.6	-2.91	17.2	20.8	-3.60
Scottie Pippen	75	75	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	6	-5	16.4	14.7	1.70	17.9	18.1	-0.24
Shawn Kemp	41	40	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.12	8	-1	9	17.0	15.5	1.50	18.3	17.5	0.78
Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje	12	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	6	-5	13.7	16.6	-2.85	20.7	17.4	3.24
Chris Dudley	23	23	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.15	-8	15	-23	18.9	15.2	3.72	16.9	18.3	-1.35
Ruben Patterson	8	7	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	11	-15	14.7	16.4	-1.60	20.9	17.6	3.23

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	35	38	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.01	6	-13	19	17.1	18.5	-1.38	17.2	15.4	1.88
Kendall Gill	9	10	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.03	2	-9	11	21.9	17.4	4.48	14.9	16.4	-1.47
Vladimir Stepania	14	14	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.09	-3	-4	1	19.3	17.6	1.67	13.3	16.8	-3.49
Chris Gatling	8	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-5	3	18.6	17.8	0.81	20.3	15.8	4.45
Rod Strickland	63	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-4	1	17.3	19.6	-2.24	17.3	13.3	3.97
Alonzo Mourning	68	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.39	-1	-6	5	17.9	18.0	-0.13	16.3	15.6	0.69
LaPhonso Ellis	45	48	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	3	-13	19.8	15.7	4.11	15.4	17.3	-1.94
Eddie House	27	26	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.13	-11	4	-15	17.1	18.2	-1.10	15.9	16.3	-0.45
Eddie Jones	75	77	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	-1	-5	17.8	18.6	-0.74	16.3	15.5	0.77
Jim Jackson	76	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.30	-7	0	-7	17.2	24.9	-7.72	15.6	20.9	-5.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.71,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.21,0.05,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 106, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.79,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.72,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.22,0.09,0.04,0	92.1%
ATL 97, NJN 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.81,0.69,0.74,0.65,0.74,0.84,0.79,0.79,0.63,0.69,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.04,0	92.1%
SAC 100, NOH 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.88,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.63,0.59,0.4,0.53,0.31,0.22,0.07,0,0	91.6%