NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	9.1 [100]		MVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): +34.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	102		Comeback	9.3 [91]		LVP	Charles Smith (SAS): -31.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	13	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
David Robinson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	8	53%	0.03	3	-0.06	3	0%	-0.04
Malik Rose	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	44%	-0.01	1	-0.05	6	67%	0.02
Antonio Daniels	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	8	47%	-0.06	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.05
Bruce Bowen	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	8	19%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.19,-0.04,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	25	58%	0.12	6	-0.24	15	80%	0.09
Terry Porter	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.12	0.00	3	50%	-0.05	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.31	-0.07	-0.25	-0.01	11	32%	-0.31	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.34	0.34	0.07	0.25	-0.02	19	60%	0.39	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	17	63%	0.13	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	14	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	71%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17	-0.17	-0.18	-0.03	-0.03	19	34%	-0.12	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.04,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.14	-0.01	7	41%	-0.13	1	-0.05	3	67%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.4	1.5	25.3	15.5	25.4	1.5	32.2	1.8	13.1	141.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +65.5%

SAS -15.1%

MIL +1.3%

MIL +12.9%

SAS -14.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIL	NBA	SAS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	15.6	15.6	95.2	97.1	102.3
season	15.8	15.3		104.3	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.7		105.1	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	15.3	14.3	15.6	12.5	19.9	14.9
MIL	14.1	15.1	16.3	17.5	13.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	57	58	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.09	4	-7	11	15.5	14.1	1.48	16.3	14.6	1.65
Mark Bryant	12	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-4	5	13.2	15.1	-1.84	17.2	15.3	1.92
Charles Smith	52	54	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.38	8	-11	19	14.5	15.2	-0.75	16.0	15.1	0.88
Tony Parker	64	66	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-3	3	15.0	14.7	0.20	15.6	15.5	0.06
Malik Rose	59	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.23	1	-4	5	14.8	14.9	-0.06	15.2	15.9	-0.67
David Robinson	40	42	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.06	-7	4	-11	14.7	15.0	-0.33	15.3	15.7	-0.37
Antonio Daniels	45	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.19	-3	0	-3	14.1	15.5	-1.42	15.0	15.9	-0.93
Terry Porter	40	39	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	0	-3	14.7	15.0	-0.20	15.5	15.6	-0.06
Tim Duncan	97	99	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.46	-1	-2	1	15.2	10.7	4.46	15.6	14.5	1.12
Bruce Bowen	54	53	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.35	-15	12	-27	15.2	14.5	0.68	14.8	16.4	-1.61

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	91	89	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.40	9	-6	15	15.3	17.4	-2.08	15.6	10.5	5.07
Tim Thomas	76	76	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.27	8	-5	13	15.1	16.6	-1.48	14.9	14.8	0.07
Michael Redd	60	61	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.39	-1	4	-5	15.8	15.2	0.69	15.5	14.0	1.57
Sam Cassell	77	77	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.40	-4	7	-11	15.5	15.6	-0.07	15.5	13.1	2.43
Rafer Alston	27	27	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.04	7	-4	11	16.2	15.3	0.85	13.1	15.5	-2.43
Glenn Robinson	66	67	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	2	-1	15.9	14.9	0.96	14.1	16.3	-2.21
Darvin Ham	38	36	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.08	7	-4	11	15.5	15.6	-0.12	13.4	15.7	-2.27
Mark Pope	1	0	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	3	-3	0.0	15.7	-15.70	0.0	14.9	-14.87
Ervin Johnson	57	56	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.03	-6	9	-15	15.9	15.1	0.86	14.1	15.8	-1.66
Joel Przybilla	23	22	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.11	-9	12	-21	16.2	15.4	0.80	14.8	14.9	-0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.46,0.32,0.32,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.71,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.8,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.71,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.92,0.46,0.45,0.15,0.1,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 97, IND 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.66,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.8,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.54,0.31,0.74,0.54,0.31,0.22,0.55,0.42,1	87.0%
NJN 93, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.53,0.72,0.68,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.45,0.57,0.42,1	86.5%
CHI 105, TOR 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.86,0.87,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.83,0.81,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.55,0.41,1	86.4%