NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	101		Excitement	6.6 [490]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +20.3%
San Antonio Spurs	91		Comeback	2.8 [72]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -29.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.16	0.10	0.06	19	77%	0.30	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.04
Michael Redd	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.09	-0.00	11	67%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.03	26	57%	0.13	4	-0.05	1	0%	-0.03
Joel Przybilla	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.01	-0.04	1	67%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	0.02
Darvin Ham	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	10	36%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.08	0.01	11	75%	0.19	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.00	12	71%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	14	55%	0.03	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	2	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	4	17%	-0.10	1	0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	8	22%	-0.11	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.26,-0.26,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.16	-0.14	-0.00	22	43%	-0.11	5	-0.18	7	57%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.4	27.5	17.5	23.5	2.3	26.6	121.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +51.7%

MIL +8.9%

SAS -16.6%

MIL +5.5%

MIL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.2	16.1	15.6	109.8	98.9	102.3
season	15.3	15.8		104.7	104.3
opponent	15.7	16.0		98.0	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	16.0	13.6	17.7	15.2
SAS	16.5	16.0	15.8	15.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	46	48	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.30	11	-1	12	16.4	14.1	2.24	15.8	16.3	-0.51
Anthony Mason	77	76	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.05	14	-4	18	14.9	17.2	-2.33	16.4	14.6	1.81
Sam Cassell	72	71	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.16	6	4	2	14.8	16.9	-2.11	15.7	17.4	-1.72
Tim Thomas	53	52	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	7	-4	16.6	13.4	3.19	16.1	16.0	0.10
Glenn Robinson	73	75	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.05	9	1	8	15.0	16.1	-1.01	16.4	14.5	1.87
Michael Redd	65	63	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	4	2	14.5	17.0	-2.53	15.7	16.9	-1.18
Rafer Alston	20	21	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	6	-2	16.9	14.8	2.11	17.4	15.7	1.72
Darvin Ham	20	20	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	12	-14	16.1	15.0	1.15	14.3	16.5	-2.24
Joel Przybilla	34	34	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.06	-1	11	-12	13.8	16.1	-2.26	16.6	15.7	0.85

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	48	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-8	6	16.1	16.0	0.06	15.1	15.4	-0.33
Steven Smith	57	61	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-9	8	15.8	16.5	-0.79	14.6	16.5	-1.86
Malik Rose	24	23	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.08	-2	-8	6	16.5	15.9	0.66	17.1	14.6	2.51
Tony Parker	69	71	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.01	-8	-2	-6	16.3	15.3	1.00	14.8	16.8	-2.02
Terry Porter	23	21	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-8	6	15.3	16.3	-1.00	16.8	14.8	2.02
Charles Smith	37	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-1	-8	15.4	16.5	-1.18	16.0	14.8	1.26
Tim Duncan	84	85	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	-1	-8	16.1	16.0	0.06	14.9	19.4	-4.52
David Robinson	76	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.17	-9	-1	-8	15.9	16.8	-0.92	15.1	16.1	-1.06
Antonio Daniels	42	42	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.26	-8	-2	-6	17.0	15.2	1.83	15.7	14.9	0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.43,0.41,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 100, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.38,0.27,0.14,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.01,0,0	93.3%
UTA 97, PHX 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,0	93.1%
LAC 117, DAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.62,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.15,0.21,0.02,0,0	92.9%