NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	103		Excitement	9.8 [59]		MVP	Elden Campbell (CHH): +42.3%
Orlando Magic	101		Comeback	1.9 [147]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -37.4%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elden Campbell	0.42	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.42	0.02	0.37	-0.03	14	68%	0.52	4	-0.10	6	83%	-0.01
Bryce Drew	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	17	53%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06	-0.03	0.05	-0.04	15	48%	0.06	2	-0.00	3	100%	0.02
Lee Nailon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	8	75%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	7	14%	-0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.18	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.11,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.04	0.02	24	36%	-0.08	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.19	-0.05	-0.15	0.00	5	45%	-0.14	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.33	0.33	0.13	0.20	0.01	22	73%	0.43	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,0.04,0.32	0.32	-0.03	0.36	0.01	10	48%	0.34	1	-0.02	5	60%	0.01
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04
Horace Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	5	58%	0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	7	33%	-0.06	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.19,-0.28,-0.28,-0.37	-0.37	-0.12	-0.26	-0.01	31	45%	-0.15	4	-0.22	7	71%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.0	26.5	16.8	26.9	1.6	33.5	130.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -11.0%

CHH +2.3%

CHH +43.2%

CHH +12.8%

CHH +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	ORL	NBA	CHH	ORL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.0	15.6	106.2	104.1	102.3
season	15.9	14.6		102.2	104.6
opponent	15.8	15.6		103.3	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	14.4	15.0	17.5	16.3	15.7
ORL	11.4	15.0	16.0	14.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elden Campbell	76	75	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.44	14	-12	26	15.8	15.4	0.38	14.0	14.2	-0.22
Stacey Augmon	47	49	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.47	7	-5	12	15.5	15.9	-0.37	14.8	13.2	1.59
Baron Davis	94	93	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.47	2	0	2	15.6	16.7	-1.02	13.8	19.2	-5.47
Bryce Drew	34	36	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.08	12	-10	22	13.3	17.0	-3.67	16.4	12.6	3.78
Matt Bullard	64	63	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.18	6	-4	10	16.0	15.1	0.85	15.0	12.2	2.73
P.J. Brown	43	44	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.27	-4	6	-10	15.4	15.9	-0.43	12.6	15.2	-2.56
David Wesley	61	60	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.29	-12	14	-26	16.2	14.7	1.48	12.4	16.6	-4.27
Lee Nailon	57	56	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	9	-16	16.2	14.9	1.33	13.7	14.5	-0.78
Jamaal Magloire	9	9	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.03	-8	10	-18	17.2	15.5	1.70	16.0	13.8	2.19

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jud Buechler	19	20	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.06	-2	0	-2	17.2	13.2	3.91	15.0	15.9	-0.86
Darrell Armstrong	75	75	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.39	7	-9	16	13.2	16.9	-3.69	16.3	13.6	2.64
Steven Hunter	33	33	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	3	-8	12.6	14.7	-2.08	14.5	16.3	-1.77
Pat Garrity	61	61	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.42	7	-9	16	14.4	13.3	1.12	16.5	14.2	2.32
Troy Hudson	24	23	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	5	-12	15.9	13.4	2.48	13.0	16.5	-3.46
Patrick Ewing	29	30	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	6	-14	16.5	12.9	3.58	13.8	16.5	-2.67
Horace Grant	69	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.34	0	-2	2	13.5	15.2	-1.74	16.5	13.6	2.86
Mike Miller	86	85	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.39	0	-2	2	13.5	17.6	-4.09	16.0	13.2	2.77
Tracy McGrady	89	89	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	13.8	16.5	-2.71	15.5	17.6	-2.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.38,0.26,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.29,0.31,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.32,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 106, UTA 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.33,0.15,0.1,0.16,0.17,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.16,0	92.0%
PHX 104, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.23,0.14,0.24,0.13,0.07,0.28,0.47,0.04,0	91.9%
ATL 76, CLE 65	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.29,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.38,0.37,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.16,0.01,0.01,0	91.9%