NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	104		Excitement	5.0 [807]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +18.1%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	2.5 [683]		LVP	Sam Mack (MIA): -10.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.18	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.17	0.02	0.01	17	75%	0.19	1	-0.01	10	100%	0.05
Shawn Bradley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	16	63%	0.06	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Evan Eschmeyer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Tim Hardaway	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	10	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	9	78%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	0.03	17	44%	-0.07	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	13	65%	0.09	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	80%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	58%	0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	10	38%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	7	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	0.03	11	48%	-0.07	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.03
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	6	43%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04
Sam Mack	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	12	35%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	30.8	15.7	28.7	1.8	29.5	132.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +11.0%

DAL +11.1%

DAL +13.0%

DAL +11.7%

DAL +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	16.4	15.6	116.9	103.3	102.3
season	14.8	16.5		109.6	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.5		98.2	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.2	14.6	14.9	18.8	15.6
MIA	16.5	18.8	15.7	14.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	73	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.10	16	-6	22	15.3	16.7	-1.35	16.5	15.9	0.57
Dirk Nowitzki	83	84	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	0	10	15.0	23.3	-8.31	16.5	14.9	1.68
Juwan Howard	65	63	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	-1	12	16.1	14.3	1.77	16.6	15.9	0.69
Donnell Harvey	13	15	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.10	12	-2	14	14.8	15.7	-0.95	17.5	16.2	1.27
Michael Finley	73	75	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.25	0	10	-10	15.9	14.1	1.86	16.8	14.4	2.39
Adrian Griffin	47	46	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.25	-2	12	-14	17.6	13.4	4.17	14.7	18.1	-3.37
Tim Hardaway	33	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	6	-2	15.3	15.7	-0.40	14.9	17.3	-2.35
Greg Buckner	27	31	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	9	-8	14.2	16.2	-2.01	16.3	16.5	-0.23
Shawn Bradley	23	26	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	10	-10	14.9	15.8	-0.96	17.0	16.2	0.78
Evan Eschmeyer	8	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	12	-14	14.2	15.7	-1.47	21.7	16.0	5.75

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	37	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.16	5	-15	20	16.1	16.6	-0.59	16.5	14.8	1.71
Rod Strickland	46	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.21	2	-12	14	15.3	17.5	-2.19	16.7	14.5	2.23
Chris Gatling	38	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-8	6	16.3	16.5	-0.25	17.3	14.2	3.07
Vladimir Stepania	27	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-4	-2	17.8	15.8	1.95	15.0	15.8	-0.81
Sean Marks	26	25	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.05	-11	1	-12	17.6	15.9	1.64	15.1	15.8	-0.70
Eddie House	34	35	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-3	-4	14.7	17.4	-2.72	16.7	14.9	1.77
LaPhonso Ellis	65	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	-6	-4	-2	16.9	15.1	1.81	14.5	17.9	-3.42
Sam Mack	52	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-2	-6	16.1	16.8	-0.72	14.0	17.5	-3.48
Anthony Carter	51	50	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-1	-8	17.2	15.4	1.80	15.8	15.3	0.54
Eddie Jones	79	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-2	-6	16.4	16.3	0.08	15.1	18.4	-3.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.52,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 96, CLE 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
DAL 112, PHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
CHA 121, GSW 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.41,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%