NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	89		Excitement	5.0 [806]		MVP	Danny Ferry (SAS): +10.7%
San Antonio Spurs	104		Comeback	1.0 [1131]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -13.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Ewing	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	60%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Monty Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	5	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Hunter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	22%	-0.00	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	37%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Troy Hudson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	0.01	-0.01	17	38%	-0.05	3	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Grant Hill	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.00	-0.02	18	41%	-0.04	5	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
Tracy McGrady	-0.14	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	21	42%	-0.05	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.01	0.04	3	137%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	10	68%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	16	63%	0.07	3	-0.04	9	44%	-0.04
Cherokee Parks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amal McCaskill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	67%	0.00	1	-0.00	4	50%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	5	50%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.06	9	44%	0.00	3	-0.05	9	78%	-0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	11	52%	-0.03	3	-0.07	7	43%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	2.7	35.2	19.6	29.1	2.4	31.3	150.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +63.5%

ORL -6.4%

ORL -6.5%

ORL -2.2%

SAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	15.4	15.6	95.7	114.3	102.3
season	14.6	15.8		104.6	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.8		98.0	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.7	14.7	16.2	15.1	15.9
SAS	15.0	15.3	15.1	16.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew DeClercq	19	18	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-19	23	15.2	16.1	-0.91	15.9	15.3	0.66
Steven Hunter	13	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-13	11	15.5	15.9	-0.49	17.4	15.1	2.30
Bo Outlaw	29	27	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	-13	11	15.0	16.3	-1.23	17.0	14.8	2.20
Patrick Ewing	24	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-12	9	16.5	15.7	0.89	16.3	15.1	1.24
Monty Williams	34	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-10	5	15.4	16.1	-0.69	16.4	14.8	1.59
Troy Hudson	65	62	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-12	9	15.2	17.4	-2.21	15.9	14.4	1.42
Darrell Armstrong	66	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-9	3	15.2	17.5	-2.25	15.2	15.9	-0.69
Don Reid	34	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.09	-15	0	-15	17.2	15.1	2.09	13.0	16.7	-3.73
Horace Grant	53	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	0	-15	16.5	15.0	1.46	14.9	16.2	-1.29
Tracy McGrady	74	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.13	-10	-5	-5	15.8	16.1	-0.28	14.9	17.4	-2.53
Grant Hill	54	54	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.01	-18	3	-21	16.9	14.5	2.45	15.3	15.5	-0.21

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	81	84	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.00	16	-1	17	15.3	16.1	-0.77	15.8	16.2	-0.38
Bruce Bowen	62	64	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.07	10	5	5	15.1	16.1	-0.96	15.9	15.8	0.08
David Robinson	46	46	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.01	11	4	7	15.5	15.3	0.25	17.2	14.6	2.56
Steven Smith	42	41	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	6	3	14.5	16.2	-1.70	17.1	14.9	2.22
Tony Parker	60	62	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.01	10	5	5	15.3	15.6	-0.35	15.9	15.8	0.06
Terry Porter	31	31	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	10	-5	15.6	15.3	0.35	15.8	15.9	-0.06
Malik Rose	43	44	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.01	7	8	-1	16.0	14.9	1.15	14.8	16.9	-2.06
Antonio Daniels	52	55	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.03	5	10	-5	16.2	14.4	1.72	14.8	17.4	-2.56
Danny Ferry	20	20	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.10	8	7	1	17.0	15.0	2.03	16.3	15.8	0.60
Stephen Jackson	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	13.3	15.6	-2.23	15.2	15.9	-0.76
Amal McCaskill	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	13.3	15.6	-2.23	15.2	15.9	-0.76
Cherokee Parks	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	13.3	15.6	-2.23	15.2	15.9	-0.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 91, DET 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
SAC 96, MIN 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.7,0.6,0.63,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.81,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
UTA 96, DAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,1	95.5%