NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	90		Excitement	8.7 [137]		MVP	Cuttino Mobley (HOU): +27.8%
Houston Rockets	88		Comeback	1.2 [602]		LVP	Steve Francis (HOU): -30.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.04	0.00	6	79%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Terrell Brandon	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,0.1	-0.04	0.15	0.01	15	40%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.06	-0.00	6	37%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Gary Trent	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.01	12	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	3	29%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.04,-0.02,-0.07	0.04	-0.10	0.01	30	57%	0.08	4	-0.15	5	100%	0.05
Felipe Lopez	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	7	14%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.1,0.1,0.28	0.28	0.13	0.15	0.00	14	80%	0.46	3	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	6	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	6	47%	-0.05	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.06
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	12	33%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.03	-0.15	0.01	11	50%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	8	29%	-0.16	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	0	75%	0.02	4	-0.22	4	75%	0.02
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.10	-0.21	0.01	19	44%	-0.15	3	-0.16	7	71%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	29.0	16.4	24.5	2.7	30.0	127.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +21.6%

MIN +4.7%

HOU -24.0%

MIN +44.6%

MIN +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	HOU	NBA	MIN	HOU	NBA
this game	16.2	16.6	15.6	103.4	98.9	102.3
season	15.0	16.8		106.7	100.9
opponent	15.2	16.1		106.4	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.8	16.6	16.5	16.8	16.2
HOU	17.2	17.7	16.2	15.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrell Brandon	62	65	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.36	13	-11	24	16.0	16.6	-0.54	16.2	17.5	-1.24
Wally Szczerbiak	77	79	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.39	9	-7	16	15.8	18.7	-2.86	16.7	15.1	1.63
Joe Smith	51	52	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.55	-1	3	-4	16.3	15.9	0.39	14.5	19.4	-4.89
Kevin Garnett	73	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.50	-3	5	-8	16.5	14.4	2.08	16.4	17.3	-0.87
Anthony Peeler	49	50	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.32	0	2	-2	15.6	16.9	-1.24	17.5	15.3	2.26
Rasho Nesterovic	47	46	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	2	-2	15.9	16.5	-0.61	16.1	17.0	-0.87
Gary Trent	10	12	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	-1	4	15.1	16.3	-1.21	20.2	16.0	4.28
Felipe Lopez	12	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	4	-6	19.2	15.7	3.47	15.3	16.7	-1.41
Loren Woods	28	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.06	1	1	0	16.4	16.1	0.27	18.0	15.8	2.15
Chauncey Billups	26	25	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.08	-10	12	-22	16.6	16.0	0.63	17.4	16.2	1.18

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walt Williams	27	27	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.14	7	-9	16	17.6	16.1	1.50	17.1	15.8	1.31
Eddie Griffin	48	48	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.27	9	-11	20	17.1	16.0	1.11	16.9	15.3	1.57
Kenny Thomas	41	38	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.09	-10	8	-18	17.1	16.1	1.06	15.4	16.8	-1.43
Kelvin Cato	38	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	2	-6	15.7	17.2	-1.56	16.6	15.8	0.80
Kevin Willis	49	47	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.34	1	-3	4	16.8	16.2	0.55	15.8	16.6	-0.88
Moochie Norris	36	36	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.49	4	-6	10	15.8	17.1	-1.30	17.1	15.5	1.51
Glen Rice	55	54	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.17	-7	5	-12	16.3	16.9	-0.63	15.6	17.1	-1.43
Cuttino Mobley	73	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.37	-2	0	-2	16.5	16.7	-0.24	15.8	17.9	-2.13
Steve Francis	78	74	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.42	-8	6	-14	16.4	17.5	-1.03	16.1	16.3	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.29,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.36,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.19,0.22,0.3,0.43,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.39,0.29,0.22,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 116, MIA 113	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.47,0.47,0.25,0.21,0.06,0.16,0	91.7%
DAL 116, VAN 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.41,0.27,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.34,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.66,0.55,0.45,0.22,0.08,0	91.6%
DAL 92, PHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.23,0.2,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.67,0.53,0.46,0.14,0.02,0	91.5%