NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	100		Excitement	2.7 [1167]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +12.3%
Dallas Mavericks	120		Comeback	1.2 [1073]		LVP	Vernon Maxwell (DAL): -8.3%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.15	-0.00	0.14	13	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.05	11	69%	0.02	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Dean Garrett	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Sam Mitchell	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	6	29%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Reggie Slater	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.00	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	10	48%	-0.02	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.03	11	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Terrell Brandon	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
William Avery	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.14	0.00	-0.07	11	9%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.16	0.00	0.04	14	80%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	68%	0.07	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	11	55%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	9	72%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	43%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	10	54%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	44%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	83%	0.00	3	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.15	0.00	-0.07	6	8%	-0.05	3	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	31.0	22.4	20.6	2.4	27.4	129.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +54.4%

DAL +3.3%

MIN -2.6%

MIN -6.1%

DAL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	13.4	13.7	15.5	93.5	114.3	100.9
season	15.0	15.2		102.9	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.9		101.2	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.3	14.7	15.2	10.7	13.4
DAL	12.4	13.0	13.0	16.6	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	43	41	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.40	13	-33	46	12.1	14.4	-2.29	15.5	12.6	2.92
Felipe Lopez	60	59	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.39	12	-32	44	12.8	14.2	-1.34	14.6	12.6	2.04
Reggie Slater	27	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.11	2	-22	24	13.7	13.3	0.40	15.6	13.0	2.60
LaPhonso Ellis	62	59	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.42	12	-32	44	12.8	14.3	-1.54	14.8	12.3	2.47
Rasho Nesterovic	51	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.13	-7	-13	6	14.6	12.4	2.16	13.2	14.2	-1.01
William Avery	53	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.20	-14	-6	-8	13.4	13.5	-0.16	13.0	14.4	-1.32
Terrell Brandon	24	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.14	-14	-6	-8	13.2	13.5	-0.35	12.4	14.1	-1.75
Dean Garrett	35	34	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.31	-25	5	-30	14.5	12.9	1.60	12.7	14.2	-1.48
Sam Mitchell	45	46	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.51	-32	12	-44	14.3	12.8	1.54	12.3	14.8	-2.47
Wally Szczerbiak	51	49	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.43	-30	10	-40	14.4	12.6	1.82	12.8	14.5	-1.72

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	55	57	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.41	31	-11	42	12.7	14.9	-2.23	14.4	12.3	2.06
Michael Finley	61	62	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.59	36	-16	52	13.0	14.8	-1.79	14.4	12.1	2.37
Dirk Nowitzki	65	63	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.48	32	-12	44	12.5	15.7	-3.14	14.4	12.1	2.33
Steve Nash	50	50	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.39	23	-3	26	12.5	14.9	-2.35	15.1	11.9	3.19
Calvin Booth	36	37	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.24	17	3	14	12.7	14.3	-1.62	15.4	12.4	2.92
Shawn Bradley	21	21	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.09	11	9	2	13.3	13.8	-0.56	14.5	13.2	1.29
Howard Eisley	55	57	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.30	-3	23	-26	14.9	12.5	2.35	11.9	15.1	-3.19
Donnell Harvey	17	17	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.24	-6	26	-32	13.4	13.8	-0.38	9.9	14.1	-4.23
Vernon Maxwell	44	45	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.50	-16	36	-52	14.8	13.0	1.79	12.1	14.4	-2.37
Eduardo Najera	47	49	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.23	-7	27	-34	14.8	12.9	1.91	12.9	13.9	-0.92
Mark Bryant	38	40	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.18	-6	26	-32	15.2	12.9	2.32	11.1	14.8	-3.70
Wang Zhi-zhi	36	37	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.32	-12	32	-44	16.1	12.5	3.53	12.6	13.9	-1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 84, DET 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.93,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
MIN 83, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
MIL 89, MIA 115	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.77,0.81,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.8,0.67,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%