NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	99		Excitement	8.3 [166]		MVP	Felipe Lopez (MIN): +18.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	95		Comeback	3.4 [168]		LVP	LaPhonso Ellis (MIN): -24.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Felipe Lopez	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.19,0.19	0.04	0.14	-0.00	11	59%	0.22	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	7	57%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Jacobson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0,0,-0.02	0.03	-0.05	0.01	20	62%	0.20	4	-0.22	8	100%	0.13
Reggie Slater	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	15	47%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.03	-0.10	0.01	14	50%	-0.07	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.05
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.12,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.10	-0.15	0.00	17	35%	-0.19	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1	0.10	0.09	-0.01	-0.02	16	66%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.04	0.00	11	73%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.10	-0.02	15	60%	0.10	5	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Arvydas Sabonis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	5	25%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.10	-0.13	0.00	7	19%	-0.18	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Scottie Pippen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24	-0.24	-0.09	-0.16	-0.01	9	35%	-0.19	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	1.6	26.2	16.7	27.3	2.5	34.4	137.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +26.4%

MIN +14.8%

MIN +3.7%

MIN +7.9%

POR -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	POR	NBA	MIN	POR	NBA
this game	15.7	17.2	15.5	112.5	109.2	100.9
season	15.0	15.8		102.9	103.9
opponent	15.8	15.9		100.3	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.5	17.4	14.8	16.4	15.7
POR	13.7	17.7	19.5	18.8	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felipe Lopez	50	51	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.32	23	-19	42	15.1	16.6	-1.43	17.2	17.2	0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	64	65	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.40	8	-4	12	15.1	17.5	-2.36	16.6	18.9	-2.25
Wally Szczerbiak	73	74	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.37	7	-3	10	15.5	16.7	-1.12	17.2	17.2	-0.06
Terrell Brandon	87	87	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.35	6	-2	8	15.9	0.0	15.92	17.2	0.0	17.18
Kevin Garnett	81	80	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	-1	6	15.9	13.9	2.04	17.2	16.6	0.67
William Avery	1	0	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.04	-2	6	-8	0.0	15.9	-15.92	0.0	17.2	-17.18
Rasho Nesterovic	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	7	-10	17.3	15.5	1.76	17.0	17.2	-0.21
Chauncey Billups	8	6	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	9	-14	15.1	15.8	-0.68	17.3	17.2	0.16
Sam Jacobson	10	10	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	8	-12	15.4	15.8	-0.38	18.8	17.0	1.83
Reggie Slater	24	22	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.02	-4	8	-12	17.5	15.1	2.36	18.9	16.6	2.25
Sam Mitchell	32	31	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	0.03	-11	15	-26	16.5	15.3	1.20	16.5	17.5	-0.99

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Stoudamire	48	46	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	0	-4	16.4	18.1	-1.71	14.7	16.9	-2.28
Rod Strickland	36	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.20	5	-9	14	18.0	16.6	1.34	16.9	14.8	2.08
Rasheed Wallace	46	46	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	-2	0	16.0	18.5	-2.56	15.9	15.6	0.32
Arvydas Sabonis	31	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.20	-14	10	-24	16.4	17.6	-1.19	15.1	16.1	-1.06
Steven Smith	57	58	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.55	10	-14	24	17.2	17.1	0.08	16.7	14.0	2.69
Dale Davis	56	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.58	10	-14	24	17.6	16.4	1.19	16.1	15.1	1.06
Shawn Kemp	41	42	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.39	-2	-2	0	18.5	16.0	2.56	15.6	15.9	-0.32
Scottie Pippen	60	58	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	6	-16	17.1	17.3	-0.11	15.1	16.9	-1.81
Bonzi Wells	60	63	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.29	-13	9	-22	17.3	16.9	0.48	15.5	16.2	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.68,0.74,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 99, DET 91	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.57,0.68,0.83,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.32,0.04,0	92.7%
NJN 124, MIL 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.47,0.61,0.45,0.17,0.02,0	92.2%
MIL 109, BKN 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.32,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.53,0.36,0.33,0.01,0	91.6%