NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	9.0 [96]		MVP	Mark Pope (MIL): +1.9%
Detroit Pistons	96		Comeback	4.3 [340]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -67.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Pope	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.03	0.04	0.00	15	47%	0.09	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	22	52%	0.11	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	54%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Ervin Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05	0.04	-0.07	0.02	8	65%	-0.05	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.04
Sam Cassell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	18	52%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	8	48%	-0.00	3	-0.12	7	86%	0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.00	11	59%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	14	53%	0.06	3	-0.09	6	33%	-0.10
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	0.00	8	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	9	57%	0.01	1	-0.06	10	80%	0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	4	50%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.06	0.03	13	52%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.04
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	5	0%	-0.12	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.3,-0.35,-0.32,-0.47,-0.59,-0.67	-0.67	-0.21	-0.48	-0.02	23	32%	-0.51	4	-0.16	4	50%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	29.2	15.6	23.2	1.6	37.5	133.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +54.0%

MIL +32.6%

DET -42.8%

MIL +7.2%

DET -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	15.1	14.8	15.5	104.2	99.0	100.9
season	14.9	14.3		105.9	97.9
opponent	15.4	15.8		99.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.8	13.9	15.5	15.1	15.1
DET	12.5	14.4	17.2	15.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	53	55	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.39	9	-5	14	14.0	16.4	-2.37	15.5	13.9	1.63
Jason Caffey	60	60	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.43	7	-3	10	14.9	15.2	-0.30	15.4	13.8	1.62
Ray Allen	75	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	-3	10	15.0	15.4	-0.41	14.6	15.5	-0.88
Sam Cassell	79	80	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	2	0	15.1	15.0	0.08	14.9	14.2	0.74
Glenn Robinson	77	77	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.34	-2	6	-8	15.0	15.4	-0.38	14.4	16.4	-2.10
Darvin Ham	44	46	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.02	8	-4	12	15.6	14.6	1.02	15.4	14.2	1.20
Lindsey Hunter	37	37	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.13	1	3	-2	15.6	14.7	0.91	14.8	14.8	0.04
Ervin Johnson	36	36	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	5	-6	15.3	14.9	0.34	13.7	15.4	-1.78
Mark Pope	19	18	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.05	-11	15	-26	16.2	14.8	1.43	13.2	15.1	-1.92

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	36	35	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.07	0	-4	4	14.0	15.3	-1.29	16.0	14.5	1.48
John Wallace	35	35	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.14	5	-9	14	14.9	14.7	0.25	14.5	15.4	-0.86
Mikki Moore	25	25	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-6	8	15.0	14.7	0.35	16.0	14.7	1.21
Dana Barros	34	32	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.18	2	-6	8	15.3	14.5	0.83	14.2	15.5	-1.31
Mateen Cleaves	15	15	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	3	-10	16.8	14.4	2.39	16.1	14.9	1.27
Chucky Atkins	68	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-2	0	14.6	15.3	-0.75	14.7	15.9	-1.17
Jerry Stackhouse	78	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-3	2	14.2	17.3	-3.08	15.3	13.9	1.44
Joe Smith	64	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.30	-4	0	-4	14.3	15.6	-1.29	15.0	15.2	-0.24
Corliss Williamson	53	52	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.32	-5	1	-6	16.0	13.4	2.60	15.1	15.1	-0.01
Ben Wallace	77	75	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.29	-10	6	-16	14.7	14.9	-0.21	14.8	15.9	-1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.62,0.51,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.52,0.58,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.19,0.28,0.22,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 85, CLE 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.72,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.44,0.47,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.36,0.23,0.16,0	92.4%
WAS 90, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.16,0.08,0	91.7%
LAC 96, PHX 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.8,0.69,0.74,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.1,0	91.6%