NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	99		Excitement	7.9 [231]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): +27.5%
Orlando Magic	103		Comeback	8.0 [235]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (VAN): -22.1%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.17	0.10	-0.00	10	87%	0.27	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Grant Long	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.01	-0.03	9	54%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Kevin Edwards	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	70%	0.02	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Massenburg	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	7	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bryant Reeves	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.07	0.00	11	62%	0.12	3	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Michael Dickerson	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	9	40%	-0.03	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.25,-0.22	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	15	45%	-0.10	2	-0.12	8	87%	0.04

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.27	0.27	0.13	0.15	-0.00	15	81%	0.42	4	-0.14	6	100%	0.07
Mike Miller	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,0.1,0.1,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.12	0.00	16	64%	0.28	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	60%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.04
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	9	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	9	58%	-0.01	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	30.7	17.0	26.0	2.0	37.2	140.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +34.2%

VAN -10.6%

ORL +8.8%

ORL +7.8%

ORL +9.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	ORL	NBA	VAN	ORL	NBA
this game	16.6	14.9	15.5	107.6	113.2	100.9
season	15.6	14.6		97.4	101.6
opponent	15.8	15.1		100.8	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	17.7	14.1	17.8	16.8	16.6
ORL	13.6	15.9	16.5	13.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Reeves	45	46	0.47	-0.97	1.43	-0.09	19	-23	42	14.9	18.2	-3.30	16.0	13.8	2.29
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	28	29	0.37	-0.87	1.24	-0.10	16	-20	36	15.9	16.9	-1.00	14.6	15.1	-0.48
Stromile Swift	36	37	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.18	14	-18	32	15.6	17.2	-1.64	14.9	14.9	-0.08
Kevin Edwards	1	0	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-4	4	0.0	16.7	-16.74	0.0	14.9	-14.91
Grant Long	52	49	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.19	-14	10	-24	17.5	15.3	2.18	14.4	15.5	-1.09
Damon Jones	63	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.47	2	-6	8	15.5	18.9	-3.47	15.1	14.6	0.49
Michael Dickerson	62	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	0	-4	17.1	15.5	1.56	15.1	14.5	0.58
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	77	76	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.29	-14	10	-24	17.2	13.1	4.09	14.8	15.7	-0.90
Tony Massenburg	32	31	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.29	-19	15	-34	18.6	15.5	3.13	13.8	15.5	-1.73
Mike Bibby	64	62	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.28	-20	16	-36	16.9	15.9	1.00	15.1	14.6	0.48

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	68	71	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.36	15	-11	26	15.3	13.7	1.57	17.0	15.1	1.89
Mike Miller	65	68	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.34	14	-10	24	15.4	13.6	1.87	17.1	15.1	1.99
Bo Outlaw	65	66	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.42	11	-7	18	15.3	14.0	1.33	16.9	15.6	1.36
Pat Garrity	39	40	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.47	4	0	4	14.5	15.2	-0.79	15.5	17.3	-1.78
Michael Doleac	39	38	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.52	2	2	0	14.4	15.3	-0.88	15.9	17.0	-1.12
John Amaechi	45	46	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.10	4	0	4	15.2	14.7	0.53	17.7	15.5	2.20
Andrew DeClercq	38	38	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.02	-2	6	-8	15.3	14.6	0.69	18.3	15.3	3.00
Don Reid	35	35	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.21	4	0	4	14.4	15.2	-0.88	16.0	16.9	-0.85
Troy Hudson	10	10	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	12	-20	15.0	14.9	0.10	10.5	17.3	-6.79
Monty Williams	28	27	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.05	-10	14	-24	13.8	15.4	-1.63	15.3	17.1	-1.78
Cory Alexander	23	21	-0.39	0.89	-1.27	0.03	-14	18	-32	13.7	15.3	-1.57	15.1	17.0	-1.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.37,0.66,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 94, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.26,0.2,0.55,0.77,0.72,1	91.3%
PHX 79, NYK 84	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.11,0.19,0.22,0.32,0.36,0.78,0.84,1	90.4%
DAL 89, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.57,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.25,0.28,0.35,0.84,1	90.3%