NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	84		Excitement	8.8 [113]		MVP	Robert Pack (DEN): +5.8%
Golden State Warriors	79		Comeback	3.0 [450]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -32.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Pack	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	68%	0.12	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Nick Van Exel	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.2,-0.01,-0.05,0	-0.10	0.11	0.00	20	39%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.05
Raef LaFrentz	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	11	59%	0.04	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.05
Ryan Bowen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.03	-0.01	7	29%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	12	45%	-0.09	3	-0.07	7	71%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.29,-0.21,-0.21,-0.33,-0.33	-0.19	-0.15	-0.01	19	29%	-0.24	2	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vonteego Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.11,0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.10	-0.00	14	69%	0.09	3	-0.13	1	100%	0.00
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	4	40%	-0.02	4	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	7	44%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	11	46%	-0.04	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.04
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.07	-0.00	19	32%	-0.22	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.04
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.22,-0.26,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26	-0.26	-0.17	-0.08	0.01	23	29%	-0.26	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	1.7	25.3	16.4	26.3	1.5	31.2	130.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +14.3%

DEN +14.2%

DEN +25.8%

GSW -2.9%

GSW -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	16.3	15.4	15.5	92.3	86.8	100.9
season	15.2	15.0		101.4	95.3
opponent	14.9	15.2		104.8	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.8	13.9	16.4	20.0	16.3
GSW	14.2	13.8	15.6	18.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	69	69	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.39	4	1	3	17.1	13.7	3.37	15.2	15.9	-0.72
Antonio McDyess	70	69	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.40	1	4	-3	17.2	13.1	4.09	15.4	15.3	0.06
Nick Van Exel	71	69	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.34	3	2	1	16.1	16.9	-0.85	15.0	16.5	-1.50
Raef LaFrentz	62	63	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.33	3	2	1	16.6	15.7	0.93	14.9	16.5	-1.59
James Posey	67	68	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	1	3	15.7	17.8	-2.10	15.2	15.9	-0.74
Kevin Willis	33	32	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	1	3	15.7	16.6	-0.97	16.9	14.5	2.38
Robert Pack	36	38	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	2	1	15.9	16.6	-0.70	16.9	14.3	2.59
Ryan Bowen	30	29	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.05	1	4	-3	16.6	16.1	0.47	15.1	15.5	-0.38
Mark Strickland	17	18	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.03	2	3	-1	12.5	17.1	-4.62	14.3	15.6	-1.35

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	38	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.16	-7	2	-9	16.4	14.6	1.73	13.1	18.3	-5.20
Chris Porter	73	72	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-3	1	15.2	15.9	-0.73	15.6	18.9	-3.30
Mookie Blaylock	81	82	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.29	4	-9	13	14.8	20.2	-5.43	16.2	17.2	-1.04
Vonteego Cummings	28	27	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	7	-19	16.4	14.9	1.49	14.0	17.3	-3.30
Adonal Foyle	52	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.48	2	-7	9	14.8	16.1	-1.34	18.4	13.3	5.08
Corie Blount	41	42	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	-1	-3	14.9	15.7	-0.79	15.6	16.9	-1.24
Antawn Jamison	75	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	15.8	13.3	2.49	17.1	11.9	5.21
Bob Sura	67	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	-2	-1	15.5	15.1	0.38	17.5	12.8	4.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.42,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.62,0.46,0.16,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 90, POR 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.24,0.27,0	91.7%
DET 92, MEM 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.57,0.77,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.54,0.37,0.1,0.04,0	91.6%
SAS 86, CHA 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.68,0.65,0.76,0.66,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.59,0.6,0.47,0.62,0.28,0.14,0.16,0	91.4%