NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	122		Excitement	13.7 [4]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +69.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	126		Comeback	58.2 [29]		LVP	Metta World Peace (CHI): -55.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0.68	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.68	0.21	0.49	0.02	14	82%	0.68	0	0.00	6	100%	0.09
Bryce Drew	0.15	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.00	7	79%	0.22	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.14,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.12,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	18	66%	0.27	4	-0.15	11	82%	0.04
Marcus Fizer	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	12	62%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
A.J. Guyton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.27	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.23,-0.1,-0.27	-0.04	-0.21	0.01	11	54%	-0.03	3	-0.24	4	50%	-0.04
Michael Ruffin	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.32	-0.03	-0.29	0.00	0	0%	-0.32	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.32
Metta World Peace	-0.56	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22,-0.22,-0.36,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.56	-0.13	-0.42	0.00	17	40%	-0.34	3	-0.21	6	67%	-0.07

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.69,0.69,0.69	0.69	0.23	0.49	0.02	24	80%	0.92	4	-0.23	2	100%	0.01
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.01	0.16	0.00	5	57%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	18	69%	0.16	5	-0.13	3	100%	0.03
Mark Pope	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.02	-0.03	12	21%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	5	56%	-0.06	3	-0.09	8	50%	-0.10
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.33,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.21,-0.42,-0.27	-0.27	-0.06	-0.20	0.01	31	46%	-0.12	2	-0.14	6	50%	-0.24

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	22.2	1.7	29.7	15.8	24.4	1.7	29.2	1.3	16.9	0.7	18.9	162.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	1.7	17.2	1.7	17.2	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +44.0%

CHI -6.4%

MIL +6.5%

MIL +22.9%

CHI -17.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	17.3	15.4	15.5	114.0	118.9	100.9
season	16.4	14.9		95.2	105.9
opponent	15.8	15.1		102.3	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	16.3	18.3	20.2	16.7	16.8	17.7
MIL	15.0	16.8	15.0	17.6	14.7	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	68	69	0.55	-1.05	1.59	0.25	10	-14	24	17.5	16.8	0.73	16.6	13.3	3.28
Bryce Drew	69	68	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.08	-2	-2	0	17.5	16.8	0.77	15.4	15.4	-0.02
Jamal Crawford	26	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-6	8	18.2	17.0	1.23	17.3	14.8	2.52
A.J. Guyton	1	2	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-3	2	3.0	17.4	-14.40	2.5	15.7	-13.15
Corey Benjamin	23	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-5	6	19.7	16.6	3.10	14.4	15.7	-1.28
Marcus Fizer	40	38	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-1	-2	18.4	16.6	1.78	14.9	15.7	-0.80
Elton Brand	94	92	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-2	0	16.8	20.6	-3.82	15.5	15.1	0.39
Metta World Peace	94	93	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	1	-6	16.9	19.7	-2.77	15.8	12.4	3.44
Fred Hoiberg	97	96	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	1	-6	17.0	19.7	-2.69	15.1	18.0	-2.86
Michael Ruffin	11	10	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.40	-11	7	-18	16.8	17.3	-0.49	12.6	15.7	-3.10

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	50	49	0.98	-0.48	1.46	0.86	4	0	4	15.2	15.6	-0.35	17.5	17.1	0.42
Darvin Ham	74	74	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.54	11	-7	18	14.9	16.6	-1.66	16.9	18.0	-1.02
Scott Williams	48	49	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.39	5	-1	6	15.0	15.7	-0.74	17.4	17.1	0.31
Mark Pope	2	2	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	0	4	2.5	15.7	-13.15	1.5	17.6	-16.06
Sam Cassell	96	99	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.30	0	4	-4	15.6	13.5	2.10	16.9	21.1	-4.18
Glenn Robinson	93	93	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.30	-1	5	-6	15.2	17.2	-1.99	16.9	19.9	-2.99
Jason Caffey	23	24	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.06	3	1	2	16.2	15.2	1.04	17.4	17.2	0.20
Ray Allen	83	84	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.44	12	-8	20	15.6	14.7	0.91	18.1	14.3	3.71
Ervin Johnson	61	61	-0.90	1.40	-2.29	-0.37	-18	22	-40	16.4	14.1	2.33	17.8	16.6	1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.86,0.92,0.9,0.81,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.46,0.53,0.22,0.23,0.04,0.46,0.39,0.27,0.45,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 103, HOU 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.58,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.16,0.09,0	86.7%
POR 94, SAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.61,0.55,0.43,0.59,0.46,0.61,0.45,0.43,0.27,0	86.3%
MIN 102, CHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.22,0.06,0.02,0	86.0%