NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	101		Excitement	8.7 [122]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +26.1%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	5.4 [141]		LVP	Rick Fox (LAL): -20.1%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.12,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	28	61%	0.27	5	-0.21	6	67%	-0.02
Mike Penberthy	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	70%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Rider	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	16	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.11	-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	15	51%	-0.11	0	0.00	15	47%	-0.06
Brian Shaw	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	8	31%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2	-0.07	-0.14	-0.01	9	36%	-0.10	1	-0.10	4	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.26	0.26	0.02	0.26	0.01	17	59%	0.31	2	-0.05	12	92%	0.06
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	6	69%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.03
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	8	60%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.11,0.05,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	15	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.07
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	11	58%	0.05	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	3.0	28.0	19.6	25.2	2.6	41.3	141.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +53.2%

DEN +21.4%

LAL -38.2%

DEN +19.0%

LAL -5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.5	108.6	117.6	100.9
season	15.6	15.2		106.8	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.2		104.1	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.3	15.7	17.0	14.1	15.6
DEN	17.2	13.7	19.0	13.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Shaw	60	58	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.33	8	-14	22	15.1	16.6	-1.44	16.2	14.6	1.61
Horace Grant	67	65	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.33	8	-14	22	15.0	17.2	-2.15	16.6	13.3	3.24
Mark Madsen	18	19	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.00	-8	2	-10	18.6	14.9	3.61	13.2	16.3	-3.16
Rick Fox	67	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-8	10	14.8	17.8	-2.95	16.5	13.4	3.06
Shaquille O'Neal	76	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.36	2	-8	10	14.8	19.2	-4.39	16.5	11.7	4.74
Robert Horry	24	23	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	8	-22	18.2	14.7	3.51	12.4	16.8	-4.37
Mike Penberthy	38	37	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.01	-13	7	-20	16.5	15.1	1.45	14.8	16.3	-1.52
Kobe Bryant	89	86	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.35	-1	-5	4	15.6	15.7	-0.11	15.7	14.8	0.91
Isaiah Rider	26	26	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.00	-14	8	-22	17.2	15.0	2.15	13.3	16.6	-3.24

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Pack	47	49	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.32	19	-13	32	13.4	18.1	-4.71	15.1	16.2	-1.06
George McCloud	66	66	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.35	14	-8	22	14.7	18.2	-3.56	15.4	16.3	-0.87
Nick Van Exel	90	92	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.31	8	-2	10	15.8	3.0	12.80	15.6	19.0	-3.39
Raef LaFrentz	74	76	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.31	5	1	4	15.4	17.0	-1.65	15.5	16.1	-0.58
Antonio McDyess	75	78	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.38	0	6	-6	16.3	12.6	3.76	15.3	17.3	-2.01
Kevin Willis	33	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.03	7	-1	8	14.8	16.1	-1.27	16.2	15.3	0.93
James Posey	18	19	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.07	1	5	-4	18.3	15.0	3.33	18.7	14.9	3.89
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	7	7	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.03	-9	15	-24	18.0	15.5	2.54	11.6	16.0	-4.41
Voshon Lenard	45	45	-0.42	0.92	-1.33	0.02	-15	21	-36	17.8	13.6	4.15	16.3	15.1	1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.28,0.19,0.36,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.47,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, MIL 93	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.53,0.34,0.27,0.45,0.54,0.69,0.28,1	92.0%
MIN 100, ATL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.61,0.66,0.77,0.74,1	91.3%
GSW 102, UTA 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.19,0.29,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.58,1	90.7%