NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	93		Excitement	7.2 [367]		MVP	Bo Outlaw (ORL): +9.5%
Denver Nuggets	86		Comeback	4.0 [117]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -25.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bo Outlaw	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.01	5	58%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Troy Hudson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Mike Miller	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	15	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	-0.14	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.14,-0.15,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14	-0.01	-0.13	-0.00	29	54%	0.04	4	-0.18	9	78%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	6	62%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.03	11	52%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	15	47%	-0.01	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	6	8%	-0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	11	50%	-0.01	7	-0.17	2	50%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.05	-0.20	0.00	20	52%	-0.14	4	-0.11	6	67%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	1.7	26.4	15.6	25.2	1.4	33.5	125.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +25.5%

ORL +2.9%

ORL +19.0%

ORL +3.4%

DEN -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.7	16.1	15.5	103.3	94.5	100.9
season	14.6	15.2		101.6	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.8		104.1	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.9	14.8	15.0	18.4	15.7
DEN	13.4	18.0	19.3	14.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	79	81	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.20	17	-10	27	15.3	18.9	-3.61	16.7	11.0	5.70
Darrell Armstrong	62	62	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.36	8	-1	9	16.0	15.1	0.93	16.7	14.7	1.99
Bo Outlaw	59	60	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	5	-3	16.1	15.0	1.09	16.2	15.8	0.36
Mike Miller	69	71	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.34	2	5	-3	15.6	16.2	-0.58	16.5	14.6	1.83
Andrew DeClercq	27	28	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	1	5	14.8	16.2	-1.38	18.1	15.2	2.88
Don Reid	36	36	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	-1	9	15.6	15.9	-0.27	16.6	15.7	0.84
Michael Doleac	34	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	11	-15	17.6	14.6	2.92	14.0	17.2	-3.21
Monty Williams	21	20	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	6	-5	16.1	15.6	0.52	13.1	16.9	-3.82
Troy Hudson	28	29	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.07	-1	8	-9	15.1	16.0	-0.93	14.7	16.7	-1.99
John Amaechi	35	35	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	11	-15	15.3	16.0	-0.75	15.1	16.7	-1.56

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Pack	16	17	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.09	11	-18	29	12.4	16.9	-4.49	18.5	15.1	3.43
Anthony Goldwire	5	5	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-7	7	21.2	15.8	5.42	15.8	15.7	0.06
Kevin Willis	16	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.06	-8	1	-9	17.1	15.9	1.20	15.1	15.9	-0.75
Ryan Bowen	9	10	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-2	-3	21.1	15.5	5.59	16.9	15.6	1.30
James Posey	69	66	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.37	6	-13	19	15.0	19.6	-4.63	16.0	15.1	0.90
Mark Strickland	10	9	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.13	-12	5	-17	15.2	16.2	-0.99	12.1	16.1	-4.04
George McCloud	48	49	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-6	5	14.9	17.4	-2.50	16.6	14.7	1.95
Antonio McDyess	81	81	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.43	5	-12	17	16.2	15.2	0.99	16.1	12.1	4.04
Raef LaFrentz	75	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.36	1	-8	9	15.9	17.1	-1.20	15.9	15.1	0.75
Voshon Lenard	56	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	7	-21	17.7	13.5	4.12	14.5	17.8	-3.32
Nick Van Exel	70	68	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.21	-18	11	-29	16.6	14.5	2.08	15.0	17.9	-2.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.16,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.05,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 115, UTA 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.36,0.19,0.33,0.25,0.16,0.03,0.05,0	93.3%
DAL 104, SEA 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.33,0.24,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.16,0.1,0.01,0	92.8%
CHI 81, MIL 72	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.35,0.39,0.25,0.21,0.1,0,0	92.5%