NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	107		Excitement	8.3 [162]		MVP	Derek Anderson (SAS): +41.2%
Dallas Mavericks	104		Comeback	2.8 [336]		LVP	Juwan Howard (DAL): -30.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Anderson	0.41	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.38,0.41	0.10	0.32	0.01	11	71%	0.41	0	0.00	12	92%	0.19
Antonio Daniels	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.13,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.08	0.16	-0.00	12	68%	0.28	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,0.03	-0.04	0.07	0.00	20	57%	0.21	4	-0.18	14	71%	-0.08
Derrick Dial	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	4	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	5	58%	0.02	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Ferry	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	0.02	-0.01	14	43%	-0.02	3	-0.07	9	67%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.19,0.31	0.31	0.14	0.20	0.03	16	78%	0.37	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.05
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.11	-0.00	9	70%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.15	0.04	9	67%	0.18	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.01	-0.19	-0.01	24	46%	-0.13	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.17,-0.26,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.11	-0.19	-0.00	14	35%	-0.23	1	-0.07	6	67%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.0	25.0	15.5	29.3	2.4	36.5	135.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +47.4%

SAS +32.2%

DAL -5.0%

DAL -14.6%

DAL -9.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	16.9	14.8	15.5	118.9	113.0	100.9
season	15.9	15.2		103.4	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.5		101.2	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	20.6	16.5	15.0	16.0	16.9
DAL	14.0	15.5	15.0	14.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	41	43	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.35	10	-7	17	16.1	17.5	-1.39	17.9	12.1	5.80
David Robinson	63	64	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.40	6	-3	9	16.9	16.9	0.04	15.5	13.2	2.32
Tim Duncan	88	90	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.44	2	1	1	16.7	25.5	-8.82	15.0	5.5	9.50
Derek Anderson	81	83	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.42	1	2	-1	16.8	17.6	-0.75	14.9	14.0	0.88
Antonio Daniels	63	65	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.37	2	1	1	16.8	17.1	-0.28	14.6	15.3	-0.71
Danny Ferry	35	35	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.09	9	-6	15	15.6	17.7	-2.14	14.7	14.8	-0.13
Derrick Dial	9	9	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	1	1	17.6	16.8	0.75	14.0	14.9	-0.88
Avery Johnson	49	49	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	10	-17	17.5	16.1	1.39	12.1	17.9	-5.80
Samaki Walker	21	22	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.05	-10	13	-23	20.1	15.9	4.20	12.6	15.5	-2.84

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	39	38	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.02	8	-11	19	13.6	15.7	-2.09	18.3	15.9	2.40
Gary Trent	6	7	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-1	-1	19.2	14.5	4.68	12.3	17.3	-4.98
Eduardo Najera	3	3	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	2	-7	7.0	15.1	-8.06	12.7	17.0	-4.36
Dirk Nowitzki	75	74	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.41	6	-9	15	15.2	13.1	2.06	17.1	16.1	0.99
Michael Finley	87	85	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.44	6	-9	15	14.7	16.8	-2.12	16.9	15.8	1.14
Greg Buckner	39	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.12	-5	2	-7	13.4	15.8	-2.45	17.1	16.7	0.30
Howard Eisley	65	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	0	-3	14.6	15.3	-0.71	16.8	17.1	-0.28
Steve Nash	80	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	15.1	12.7	2.45	16.6	19.0	-2.42
Juwan Howard	66	63	-0.81	0.31	-1.11	-0.28	-18	15	-33	15.8	12.2	3.68	16.8	17.0	-0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.53,0.69,0.46,0.32,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 99, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.43,0.36,0.24,0.36,0.21,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.13,0.34,0.43,0.34,0.48,0.47,0.64,0.59,0.53,0.68,0.37,0.45,0.16,0	90.7%
GSW 105, DEN 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.11,0.14,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.41,0.59,0.73,0.69,0.45,0.17,0.05,0	90.2%
DET 106, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.64,0.33,0.15,0	89.8%