NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	98		Excitement	8.2 [177]		MVP	DerMarr Johnson (ATL): +15.5%
Golden State Warriors	91		Comeback	4.4 [147]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (GSW): -26.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DerMarr Johnson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.09	0.00	4	100%	0.21	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.13	0.01	0.03	21	75%	0.27	5	-0.16	9	100%	0.03
Larry Robinson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	4	75%	0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.06	-0.05	0.10	-0.00	17	46%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Cal Bowdler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ira Bowman	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	12	50%	-0.03	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Brevin Knight	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	6	17%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.14	-0.08	-0.00	5	25%	-0.08	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vonteego Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	6	43%	-0.02	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Marc Jackson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.17	-0.05	-0.02	12	19%	-0.16	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.15,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.04	0.01	18	37%	-0.05	4	-0.15	4	75%	-0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.13	-0.10	0.01	10	41%	-0.10	3	-0.13	9	56%	-0.07
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.11	-0.17	-0.01	36	46%	-0.17	4	-0.10	9	89%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	23.1	16.0	25.2	2.3	33.6	128.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +77.7%

ATL +7.5%

GSW -34.1%

GSW -5.8%

ATL +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	GSW	NBA	ATL	GSW	NBA
this game	14.2	14.7	15.5	99.0	91.0	100.9
season	15.4	15.0		96.0	95.3
opponent	14.9	15.1		104.8	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	11.9	14.8	14.9	15.8	14.2
GSW	13.8	14.0	14.5	16.9	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Robinson	38	39	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.44	6	1	5	16.2	13.0	3.20	16.2	13.8	2.33
Dikembe Mutombo	53	53	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	3	1	15.1	13.2	1.90	16.4	12.8	3.59
Jason Terry	87	89	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.13	11	-4	15	13.7	18.2	-4.59	14.1	19.6	-5.51
Lorenzen Wright	82	83	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.16	5	2	3	13.5	17.5	-4.01	14.5	15.8	-1.32
DerMarr Johnson	28	28	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.22	2	5	-3	16.2	13.4	2.74	17.7	13.6	4.19
Cal Bowdler	25	24	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.10	6	1	5	16.2	13.6	2.61	16.0	14.3	1.73
Brevin Knight	80	81	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.20	2	5	-3	14.2	14.2	0.07	14.5	15.5	-0.98
Chris Crawford	68	68	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.01	3	4	-1	12.9	17.0	-4.06	13.2	17.9	-4.67
Ira Bowman	4	3	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	8	-9	11.0	14.3	-3.35	10.7	14.9	-4.19
Alan Henderson	30	32	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.11	-3	10	-13	13.5	14.5	-1.07	12.9	15.6	-2.73

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	46	43	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-3	-1	13.8	15.5	-1.75	13.9	14.4	-0.54
Larry Hughes	77	75	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.25	6	-13	19	14.2	16.7	-2.50	14.6	13.1	1.49
Corie Blount	29	28	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-6	5	15.2	14.5	0.62	14.4	14.1	0.25
Antawn Jamison	95	94	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.24	-1	-6	5	14.7	15.2	-0.49	14.3	13.0	1.28
Mookie Blaylock	65	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-2	-3	15.1	14.1	0.95	14.5	13.7	0.77
Bob Sura	72	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	2	-11	14.4	15.5	-1.02	13.6	15.9	-2.31
Marc Jackson	67	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.22	-9	2	-11	14.8	14.5	0.32	13.8	15.3	-1.55
Vonteego Cummings	49	48	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.39	-12	5	-17	16.1	13.4	2.77	14.9	13.5	1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.64,0.68,0.78,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.2,0.15,0.22,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 112, MIN 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.06,0.16,0	91.7%
HOU 93, LAL 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.64,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.72,0.48,0.29,0.15,0.22,0.2,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.08,0	91.6%
BOS 102, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.77,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.22,0.15,0.04,0.03,0,0	91.3%