NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	97		Excitement	8.1 [197]		MVP	Johnny Newman (NJN): +35.3%
New Jersey Nets	99		Comeback	1.6 [284]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -29.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.21	0.07	0.13	-0.01	8	87%	0.27	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Dial	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	9	28%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	18	49%	-0.05	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.01
Samaki Walker	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	8	37%	-0.03	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.17	-0.04	-0.12	0.01	15	40%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.30	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.3	-0.03	-0.26	0.01	23	55%	-0.23	2	-0.07	18	61%	-0.25

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.13	0.22	-0.00	9	89%	0.41	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.03
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.25	0.25	0.20	0.05	0.01	25	67%	0.25	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	6	78%	0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	12	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.13	-0.10	0.00	7	17%	-0.19	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.6	31.4	15.4	25.4	2.6	40.8	140.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +40.3%

NJN +21.1%

SAS -17.5%

NJN +2.0%

NJN +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NJN	NBA	SAS	NJN	NBA
this game	16.0	15.3	15.5	104.3	108.8	100.9
season	15.9	15.5		103.4	97.8
opponent	15.1	15.5		103.0	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.9	17.1	16.2	14.7	16.0
NJN	14.7	14.9	15.1	16.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	21	20	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.07	5	-7	12	18.9	15.1	3.81	16.4	15.0	1.36
David Robinson	70	68	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.44	11	-13	24	16.2	15.3	0.81	16.3	12.5	3.77
Steve Kerr	6	6	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	4	-10	18.0	15.8	2.18	18.5	15.1	3.38
Antonio Daniels	29	30	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.04	-10	8	-18	16.3	15.8	0.56	15.1	15.5	-0.36
Derek Anderson	83	81	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.48	6	-8	14	15.7	18.3	-2.63	15.0	18.3	-3.32
Terry Porter	69	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.53	4	-6	10	16.0	15.7	0.34	15.5	15.0	0.46
Samaki Walker	26	26	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.03	-13	11	-24	15.3	16.2	-0.90	14.0	15.9	-1.82
Danny Ferry	73	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	1	-4	14.9	19.8	-4.90	15.2	15.9	-0.67
Tim Duncan	88	87	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.46	-3	1	-4	16.1	13.6	2.49	15.0	23.2	-8.27

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Newman	52	55	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.37	9	-7	16	15.5	15.1	0.46	15.4	16.8	-1.45
Stephon Marbury	77	79	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.45	0	2	-2	15.0	17.2	-2.21	15.6	17.9	-2.32
Lucious Harris	50	49	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.27	0	2	-2	14.6	16.3	-1.73	15.0	17.0	-1.94
Keith Van Horn	47	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	1	0	15.2	15.5	-0.22	16.7	15.2	1.42
Kenyon Martin	68	71	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.49	-9	11	-20	15.4	15.3	0.11	16.1	15.5	0.66
Aaron Williams	40	42	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.06	8	-6	14	15.3	15.3	0.02	16.4	15.6	0.82
Stephen Jackson	23	22	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.04	7	-5	12	16.5	14.9	1.58	18.8	15.1	3.69
Sherman Douglas	14	14	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	0	2	17.2	15.0	2.21	17.9	15.6	2.32
Evan Eschmeyer	41	40	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	4	-6	14.9	15.7	-0.75	16.9	15.2	1.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.83,0.9,0.88,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.67,0.62,0.71,0.65,0.73,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.74,0.83,0.59,0.47,0.76,0.89,0.95,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 108, LAL 119	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.78,0.74,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.92,0.93,0.97,1,1	92.2%
UTA 98, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.74,0.86,0.85,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.72,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.96,1	91.8%
MIL 86, DEN 94	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.78,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.94,0.88,0.8,0.79,0.71,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.71,0.61,0.75,0.93,0.98,0.99,1	91.6%