NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	101		Excitement	4.9 [813]		MVP	Chucky Atkins (DET): +9.5%
San Antonio Spurs	108		Comeback	1.2 [1178]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -21.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.03	0.06	14	68%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	8	72%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dana Barros	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	4	87%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	10	38%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Billy Owens	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Ben Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	10	45%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Mateen Cleaves	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	44%	-0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.19	-0.04	-0.01	30	46%	-0.10	7	-0.11	14	93%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.01	-0.03	11	67%	0.11	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	12	80%	0.13	5	-0.08	6	67%	-0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	18	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	14	79%	-0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Dial	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	1	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.00	-0.03	16	42%	-0.03	4	-0.08	8	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.9	1.8	28.1	16.3	24.5	1.6	33.3	126.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.2%

SAS +12.1%

SAS +12.3%

DET -5.9%

DET -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	13.8	15.4	15.5	103.1	109.1	100.9
season	14.3	15.9		97.9	103.4
opponent	15.5	15.4		96.5	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.6	15.3	14.1	12.4	13.8
SAS	15.7	15.3	15.9	14.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dana Barros	41	43	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.31	8	-15	23	12.3	14.9	-2.60	14.8	15.9	-1.13
Billy Owens	14	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-4	1	15.2	13.6	1.62	16.9	15.2	1.69
Eric Montross	16	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-7	7	12.4	14.1	-1.73	15.7	15.3	0.34
Mateen Cleaves	25	26	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-4	1	14.3	13.7	0.61	16.1	15.2	0.96
Mikki Moore	47	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-9	11	13.2	14.4	-1.14	15.6	15.2	0.43
Chucky Atkins	72	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-4	1	13.5	14.7	-1.18	14.8	17.2	-2.43
Ben Wallace	72	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-2	-3	14.3	12.5	1.86	15.5	15.2	0.30
Michael Curry	58	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	2	-11	14.6	12.7	1.95	16.1	14.5	1.65
Joe Smith	60	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	6	-19	14.2	13.2	1.01	15.0	16.1	-1.05
Jerry Stackhouse	85	85	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.24	-9	2	-11	13.8	13.8	-0.02	15.4	15.5	-0.11

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Anderson	80	79	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	-5	17	14.9	17.5	-2.63	13.8	14.1	-0.28
David Robinson	83	83	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	-5	17	15.3	15.9	-0.64	14.3	11.4	2.87
Antonio Daniels	75	74	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.26	4	3	1	14.8	17.3	-2.55	13.2	15.9	-2.71
Danny Ferry	21	22	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	0	7	14.8	15.6	-0.82	14.0	13.8	0.22
Tim Duncan	74	74	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	6	-5	15.1	16.2	-1.06	13.7	14.3	-0.67
Samaki Walker	40	38	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.17	3	4	-1	16.0	15.0	1.04	13.4	14.1	-0.71
Sean Elliott	43	43	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	3	1	16.4	14.7	1.71	14.9	13.0	1.97
Steve Kerr	35	34	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.19	-2	9	-11	15.8	15.2	0.61	13.6	13.9	-0.27
Terry Porter	29	28	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	7	-7	16.0	15.1	0.89	14.6	13.5	1.14
Derrick Dial	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	9	-11	19.0	15.4	3.63	6.0	13.9	-7.91
Ira Newble	14	14	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	11	-15	17.3	15.1	2.19	12.8	14.0	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.74,0.75,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 91, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,1,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	96.0%
PHI 84, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.8%
ATL 92, TOR 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%