NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	87		Excitement	8.8 [111]		MVP	Otis Thorpe (CHH): +7.9%
Sacramento Kings	91		Comeback	2.5 [629]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (CHH): -35.4%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	14	68%	0.11	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Lee Nailon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	54%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Eldridge Recasner	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Coleman	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	13	47%	-0.02	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
David Wesley	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.03,0.03,-0.12,-0.12	0.02	-0.11	0.03	18	57%	0.07	2	-0.19	6	100%	0.04
P.J. Brown	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.14	-0.11	-0.01	7	14%	-0.12	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.35	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.35	-0.21	-0.16	-0.01	17	29%	-0.12	4	-0.23	4	75%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.07	-0.01	19	46%	0.12	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.02
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	10	60%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	20	52%	0.03	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.08	0.01	11	46%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	2	-0.09	2	50%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	6	31%	-0.04	2	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.28,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.05	0.01	11	45%	-0.04	3	-0.12	7	71%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	2.4	28.4	15.7	26.1	2.4	32.5	128.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +27.5%

CHH -0.6%

SAC +11.1%

SAC +16.1%

CHH -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	SAC	NBA	CHH	SAC	NBA
this game	15.7	14.9	15.5	92.6	96.8	100.9
season	15.8	14.4		99.7	103.1
opponent	15.5	15.6		97.8	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	18.0	14.4	15.0	15.5	15.7
SAC	13.3	14.4	15.0	17.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otis Thorpe	51	49	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.02	6	-10	16	14.6	17.0	-2.45	15.0	14.9	0.03
Hersey Hawkins	31	32	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.05	4	-8	12	15.0	16.0	-0.98	15.9	14.5	1.45
Eldridge Recasner	13	13	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.01	1	-5	6	15.7	15.7	0.00	16.7	14.7	2.03
Lee Nailon	16	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-5	6	14.6	15.9	-1.36	18.1	14.2	3.87
Baron Davis	75	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.30	1	-5	6	15.5	16.3	-0.78	14.3	17.3	-2.97
P.J. Brown	72	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-1	-2	15.9	15.0	0.90	14.8	15.4	-0.62
Jamal Mashburn	78	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.25	-5	1	-6	15.9	14.6	1.36	14.2	18.1	-3.87
Derrick Coleman	64	65	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.45	-10	6	-16	16.6	13.8	2.78	15.3	14.1	1.22
David Wesley	70	69	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.44	-15	11	-26	15.9	15.0	0.98	14.6	15.9	-1.27

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vlade Divac	68	69	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.34	16	-12	28	14.6	15.9	-1.30	16.3	14.1	2.20
Doug Christie	51	52	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.38	14	-10	24	13.8	16.3	-2.54	16.8	14.3	2.54
Peja Stojakovic	81	81	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	-2	8	14.7	16.4	-1.67	15.6	16.1	-0.45
Chris Webber	86	86	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.37	2	2	0	15.0	14.7	0.22	15.7	15.9	-0.20
Jason Williams	66	67	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.35	-2	6	-8	14.0	17.1	-3.03	15.4	16.3	-0.90
Bobby Jackson	29	28	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	-3	10	16.5	14.3	2.22	15.8	15.7	0.13
Jon Barry	48	47	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.04	-12	16	-28	16.2	13.7	2.54	14.3	17.1	-2.83
Lawrence Funderburke	41	40	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.00	-11	15	-26	16.3	13.9	2.43	15.4	15.9	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.71,0.5,0.52,0.37,0.29,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.53,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 104, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.69,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.78,0.97,1	91.8%
MIN 92, MEM 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.41,0.32,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.53,0.41,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.84,0.63,1	91.5%
LAC 92, DAL 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.48,0.4,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.3,0.4,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.74,1	91.5%