NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	90		Excitement	6.9 [401]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +31.7%
Chicago Bulls	85		Comeback	2.7 [688]		LVP	Jalen Rose (IND): -19.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0.32	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.31,0.32	0.08	0.24	0.00	11	73%	0.36	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.04
Travis Best	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	12	59%	0.08	0	0.00	8	100%	0.06
Sam Perkins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	6	69%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Jonathan Bender	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick McKey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zan Tabak	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	4	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Al Harrington	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.19,-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	12	39%	-0.08	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.04
Austin Croshere	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.05	0.00	13	42%	-0.04	5	-0.15	5	100%	0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khalid El-Amin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	3	89%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	83%	0.08	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	14	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.06
Corey Benjamin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	8	50%	-0.02	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Dragan Tarlac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.11,-0.05,-0.06,-0.16,-0.12	-0.12	-0.14	0.01	-0.01	21	33%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.03
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	8	56%	-0.02	5	-0.16	9	78%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.7	36.0	16.5	25.1	2.4	36.6	146.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +23.3%

IND +17.9%

IND +13.8%

CHI -7.8%

IND +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	CHI	NBA	IND	CHI	NBA
this game	15.8	16.4	15.5	100.0	95.5	100.9
season	15.9	16.4		99.3	95.2
opponent	15.1	15.6		104.9	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.8	15.7	16.4	16.3	15.8
CHI	15.9	18.6	17.0	14.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Miller	80	79	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.38	10	-5	15	15.5	17.9	-2.40	16.2	17.9	-1.67
Jeff Foster	65	63	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.36	9	-4	13	15.3	16.9	-1.54	15.4	18.9	-3.49
Travis Best	74	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.34	9	-4	13	16.0	14.6	1.46	16.6	15.6	0.98
Jalen Rose	78	78	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.32	6	-1	7	15.6	16.7	-1.13	16.2	18.0	-1.81
Jermaine O'Neal	60	60	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.45	-5	10	-15	16.6	14.0	2.60	16.5	16.3	0.21
Derrick McKey	3	3	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	1	3	0.7	16.3	-15.62	9.0	16.7	-7.67
Sam Perkins	6	6	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.03	5	0	5	16.3	15.7	0.61	18.5	16.3	2.23
Jonathan Bender	7	6	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	6	-7	17.4	15.6	1.80	18.5	16.3	2.23
Zan Tabak	31	30	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.06	1	4	-3	14.8	16.3	-1.51	17.3	16.0	1.33
Al Harrington	23	23	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	10	-15	17.3	15.3	2.01	18.5	15.7	2.84
Austin Croshere	23	23	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.04	-8	13	-21	16.5	15.5	0.96	16.5	16.4	0.14

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Benjamin	16	16	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.12	12	-17	29	15.7	16.6	-0.89	19.0	15.1	3.93
Fred Hoiberg	50	52	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.42	14	-19	33	14.2	19.2	-4.97	16.1	15.3	0.78
Elton Brand	62	64	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.31	7	-12	19	16.0	17.3	-1.26	15.8	15.7	0.05
Michael Ruffin	41	43	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-4	3	16.2	16.6	-0.32	15.7	15.9	-0.22
Bryce Drew	25	24	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	-1	-3	18.8	15.5	3.26	14.2	16.3	-2.18
Brad Miller	23	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-2	-1	18.4	15.7	2.72	16.0	15.7	0.30
Marcus Fizer	34	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	0	-5	17.1	16.0	1.09	16.8	15.1	1.64
Dragan Tarlac	9	8	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-14	9	-23	19.0	16.1	2.87	14.1	15.9	-1.80
Khalid El-Amin	17	17	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	8	-21	18.1	16.0	2.03	14.4	16.1	-1.74
Metta World Peace	84	85	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.35	-5	0	-5	16.2	20.6	-4.43	15.7	17.0	-1.31
Ron Mercer	84	85	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.31	-13	8	-21	16.3	17.8	-1.47	15.5	20.4	-4.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.21,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.15,0.19,0.34,0.17,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.13,0.25,0.16,0.32,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 96, MIN 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.34,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.02,0	92.1%
MEM 110, ORL 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.23,0.05,0	91.9%
PHI 83, NJN 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.3,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.34,0.05,0	91.8%