NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	106		Excitement	5.3 [729]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +21.3%
Boston Celtics	98		Comeback	1.4 [698]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -12.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.18	0.04	0.00	16	79%	0.27	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.03
Steve Nash	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.11	0.03	0.03	7	95%	0.17	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Christian Laettner	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	59%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Gary Trent	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Alexander	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	5	45%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Loy Vaught	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	8	39%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Michael Finley	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.02	17	49%	-0.02	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	6	82%	0.14	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	9	61%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	20	57%	0.02	0	0.00	13	92%	0.03
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.04	7	75%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Randy Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	7	29%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.03	0.03	21	44%	-0.05	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	32.5	14.8	25.5	2.5	28.5	129.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +30.0%

DAL +13.2%

DAL +2.2%

BOS -2.5%

DAL +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	BOS	NBA	DAL	BOS	NBA
this game	16.5	15.5	15.5	117.8	108.9	100.9
season	15.2	15.1		104.6	99.7
opponent	15.4	15.3		101.8	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.2	18.3	17.0	17.9	16.5
BOS	16.8	14.4	15.0	15.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	74	74	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.18	19	-11	30	15.8	19.9	-4.06	16.1	12.4	3.68
Steve Nash	77	75	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.25	10	-2	12	16.1	18.9	-2.79	16.0	12.9	3.12
Hubert Davis	44	46	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	6	-4	17.3	15.8	1.54	14.7	16.3	-1.62
Michael Finley	83	84	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.21	6	2	4	16.0	23.4	-7.48	15.5	15.2	0.32
Gary Trent	22	20	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	7	-6	17.6	16.2	1.46	16.7	15.1	1.65
Shawn Bradley	60	61	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.04	3	5	-2	16.0	17.6	-1.55	15.7	15.0	0.64
Courtney Alexander	7	7	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.06	2	6	-4	23.4	16.0	7.48	13.3	15.7	-2.36
Howard Eisley	63	62	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.10	6	2	4	16.3	17.2	-0.93	15.2	16.0	-0.83
Loy Vaught	9	10	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	12	-16	21.9	15.9	5.95	12.7	15.8	-3.11
Christian Laettner	11	11	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.09	-5	13	-18	18.9	16.2	2.71	12.5	15.9	-3.33

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	26	26	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-11	14	14.5	15.9	-1.41	16.8	16.4	0.44
Vitaly Potapenko	48	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-10	12	15.2	15.7	-0.46	17.3	15.7	1.69
Paul Pierce	78	78	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.23	3	-11	14	14.9	19.2	-4.37	17.0	13.5	3.50
Walter McCarty	14	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.08	-3	-5	2	13.5	15.8	-2.33	23.6	15.5	8.09
Kenny Anderson	46	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.26	2	-10	12	16.2	14.7	1.45	17.1	15.9	1.29
Adrian Griffin	28	29	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.15	-5	-3	-2	17.6	14.5	3.06	14.4	17.6	-3.18
Randy Brown	18	17	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.07	-13	5	-18	15.1	15.6	-0.44	14.4	17.0	-2.69
Tony Battie	38	40	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	2	-12	15.8	15.2	0.56	14.8	17.9	-3.03
Antoine Walker	82	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	0	-8	15.7	13.4	2.30	16.0	22.9	-6.86
Bryant Stith	72	72	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.20	-11	3	-14	15.4	15.7	-0.32	16.8	15.3	1.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.21,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.28,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.17,0.23,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 92, DET 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0	94.3%
DAL 95, DET 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.24,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.27,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0	94.2%
ORL 86, CLE 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.08,0.01,0.03,0.03,0	93.4%