NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	88		Excitement	3.6 [1041]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +17.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	112		Comeback	1.0 [1239]		LVP	Chucky Atkins (DET): -11.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mateen Cleaves	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.03	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dana Barros	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.08	9	28%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	4	33%	0.01	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.07	-0.00	0.09	19	56%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	22	59%	0.09	6	-0.11	7	71%	0.01
Billy Owens	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	10	27%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.02	-0.06	21	59%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	18	63%	0.12	2	-0.04	5	40%	-0.03
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	71%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	62%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Mike Penberthy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	7	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	5	80%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	37%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	7	28%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.02	8	44%	-0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	27.1	16.6	21.3	2.6	26.0	120.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +29.7%

DET -0.8%

LAL +10.7%

LAL +8.4%

LAL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	LAL	NBA	DET	LAL	NBA
this game	13.9	15.2	15.5	88.0	114.3	100.9
season	14.3	15.6		97.9	106.8
opponent	15.2	15.4		101.8	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.6	13.1	13.6	14.5	13.9
LAL	14.8	14.1	16.5	15.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Cardinal	13	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.17	-6	-18	12	13.0	14.1	-1.07	13.3	15.5	-2.20
Mikki Moore	29	28	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.17	-6	-18	12	13.6	14.1	-0.53	15.1	15.2	-0.14
Jud Buechler	35	34	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-21	18	14.1	13.8	0.33	16.1	14.7	1.49
Billy Owens	27	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.15	-9	-15	6	12.5	14.5	-1.93	13.3	15.9	-2.64
Mateen Cleaves	45	44	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.19	-11	-13	2	14.1	13.8	0.29	14.5	15.7	-1.26
Michael Curry	25	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	-16	8	15.2	13.5	1.64	17.3	14.5	2.81
Dana Barros	52	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.24	-15	-9	-6	14.0	13.9	0.11	14.5	16.0	-1.52
Eric Montross	37	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.09	-12	-12	0	14.7	13.5	1.27	15.7	14.9	0.82
Joe Smith	64	62	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	-15	6	13.8	14.2	-0.46	14.8	15.9	-1.13
Chucky Atkins	42	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.03	-11	-13	2	13.6	14.2	-0.62	15.3	15.1	0.16
Ben Wallace	57	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.00	-15	-9	-6	14.0	13.8	0.16	15.8	14.3	1.51
Jerry Stackhouse	74	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.03	-15	-9	-6	14.0	13.7	0.27	15.6	14.0	1.67

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	69	68	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.19	23	1	22	14.7	16.3	-1.61	14.5	12.7	1.74
Shaquille O'Neal	68	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.05	18	6	12	15.1	15.4	-0.37	13.5	15.0	-1.53
Rick Fox	52	55	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.05	17	7	10	15.4	15.0	0.41	13.5	14.4	-0.94
Horace Grant	45	46	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.14	16	8	8	15.6	14.8	0.79	14.5	13.4	1.06
Ron Harper	33	34	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.11	14	10	4	15.9	14.8	1.15	14.7	13.5	1.18
Brian Shaw	24	25	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.04	5	19	-14	15.0	15.2	-0.17	14.3	13.8	0.47
Robert Horry	41	43	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	22	-20	15.1	15.2	-0.17	13.7	14.1	-0.45
Mike Penberthy	66	67	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.12	8	16	-8	15.3	14.9	0.40	13.3	15.2	-1.82
Greg Foster	21	20	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.22	8	16	-8	15.8	15.0	0.75	14.4	13.8	0.65
Mark Madsen	21	21	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.11	4	20	-16	14.2	15.4	-1.19	14.2	13.8	0.39
Devean George	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	20	-16	13.8	15.4	-1.62	13.2	14.1	-0.86
Isaiah Rider	35	36	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.06	1	23	-22	15.5	15.0	0.57	14.0	13.9	0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.77,0.69,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 72, DAL 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
POR 107, PHX 125	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
LAC 77, GSW 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%