NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	117		Excitement	4.2 [950]		MVP	Sean Elliott (SAS): +12.1%
Golden State Warriors	105		Comeback	1.7 [899]		LVP	Larry Hughes (GSW): -18.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean Elliott	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.02	-0.02	10	82%	0.17	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Danny Ferry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	6	58%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	12	76%	0.08	3	-0.01	10	60%	-0.00
Steve Kerr	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	9	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Samaki Walker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.06	7	27%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Terry Porter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	13	52%	0.03	4	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Derek Anderson	-0.14	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	9	43%	-0.07	3	-0.06	12	83%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	0.02	0.07	21	68%	0.11	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.01
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	13	46%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	10	46%	0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.02
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	11	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vonteego Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	0.00	0.07	12	54%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	7	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	11	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.18	-0.02	-0.01	18	31%	-0.17	2	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.0	29.2	16.4	24.4	2.3	38.6	135.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +52.3%

SAS +8.3%

SAS +9.9%

GSW -21.1%

SAS +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	14.2	14.7	15.5	117.0	105.0	100.9
season	15.9	15.0		103.4	95.3
opponent	14.9	15.5		104.8	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.8	12.8	15.7	14.4	14.2
GSW	13.8	16.0	15.6	13.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	76	75	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.00	16	-4	20	13.9	14.8	-0.90	14.7	14.4	0.39
Malik Rose	49	48	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.08	18	-6	24	14.3	14.0	0.31	14.4	14.9	-0.53
Steve Kerr	42	43	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.04	14	-2	16	14.0	14.3	-0.26	15.8	13.8	2.04
Antonio Daniels	45	44	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.15	6	6	0	15.5	13.1	2.39	14.6	14.7	-0.02
Sean Elliott	66	65	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	5	2	13.7	15.1	-1.47	14.7	14.5	0.16
Danny Ferry	34	35	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.07	5	7	-2	15.1	13.7	1.47	14.5	14.7	-0.16
Avery Johnson	55	56	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.04	5	7	-2	13.1	15.5	-2.39	14.7	14.6	0.02
Derek Anderson	51	49	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	6	0	13.5	14.8	-1.27	14.1	15.2	-1.07
David Robinson	53	55	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.31	-9	21	-30	14.0	14.3	-0.24	14.7	14.6	0.05
Samaki Walker	22	22	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.07	-1	13	-14	14.8	14.0	0.86	14.9	14.6	0.27
Terry Porter	7	8	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.20	-7	19	-26	19.6	13.7	5.83	11.7	14.9	-3.15

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	46	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.17	2	-14	16	13.7	15.4	-1.73	14.1	14.2	-0.17
Vinny Del Negro	42	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.25	4	-16	20	15.6	13.9	1.67	16.0	12.9	3.05
Vonteego Cummings	42	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-16	20	14.9	14.5	0.36	15.5	13.2	2.27
Chris Mills	51	52	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-10	8	14.1	15.3	-1.21	13.9	14.4	-0.55
Danny Fortson	56	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.08	-7	-5	-2	15.4	13.7	1.73	14.4	13.9	0.51
Mookie Blaylock	58	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.12	-15	3	-18	14.5	14.9	-0.36	13.2	15.4	-2.20
Larry Hughes	59	60	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.10	-16	4	-20	13.8	15.8	-2.00	12.8	16.2	-3.42
Erick Dampier	58	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.16	-19	7	-26	15.3	13.7	1.57	14.3	14.0	0.30
Antawn Jamison	88	87	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.16	-11	-1	-10	14.6	14.7	-0.02	14.2	13.8	0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 112, CHA 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
PHI 106, LAC 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
VAN 112, LAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%