NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	84		Excitement	7.3 [346]		MVP	Theo Ratliff (PHI): +13.7%
Miami Heat	82		Comeback	6.3 [81]		LVP	Vernon Maxwell (PHI): -30.4%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Theo Ratliff	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.07	-0.02	6	83%	0.16	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	8	69%	0.15	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	4	57%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,0.01,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	19	50%	0.07	1	-0.07	8	75%	-0.02
Aaron McKie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.00	0.00	9	55%	0.01	4	-0.11	11	55%	-0.05
Eric Snow	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	14	38%	-0.10	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Vernon Maxwell	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.3,-0.3	-0.16	-0.15	-0.00	12	12%	-0.30	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.14,0.1,0.17,0.05	0.05	0.11	-0.07	-0.01	21	62%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.07	-0.07	0.01	16	64%	0.10	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	10	42%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	0.00	0.01	9	45%	-0.02	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Duane Causwell	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Don MacLean	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	5	33%	-0.08	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.0	34.0	15.4	28.2	1.7	32.3	137.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +1.1%

PHI +18.5%

PHI +5.1%

PHI +25.1%

PHI +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	17.5	15.5	96.6	94.3	100.9
season	15.7	16.3		101.4	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.5		96.9	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	17.9	15.5	12.8	16.4	15.6
MIA	14.8	17.3	19.0	18.8	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	60	62	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.50	4	-2	6	15.7	15.5	0.16	17.5	17.4	0.16
George Lynch	53	52	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.53	2	0	2	16.3	14.6	1.62	18.5	15.9	2.56
Eric Snow	72	74	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.39	5	-3	8	16.2	12.9	3.26	17.3	18.5	-1.25
Vernon Maxwell	53	52	0.48	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	1	0	15.2	16.3	-1.13	18.5	16.0	2.51
Tyrone Hill	65	65	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	-9	20	15.8	15.0	0.79	17.6	17.2	0.33
Allen Iverson	84	83	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.35	-1	3	-4	15.5	18.3	-2.80	17.3	22.0	-4.75
Toni Kukoc	29	29	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.07	1	1	0	14.5	16.2	-1.72	17.4	17.5	-0.14
Nazr Mohammed	9	8	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.01	-6	8	-14	12.3	16.0	-3.68	14.6	17.8	-3.13
Aaron McKie	10	10	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.00	-7	9	-16	16.1	15.6	0.53	11.8	18.2	-6.41

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.C. Green	11	10	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.00	4	-6	10	17.8	17.4	0.40	14.1	15.8	-1.73
Bruce Bowen	41	40	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.32	10	-12	22	16.6	18.2	-1.63	16.6	14.8	1.88
Duane Causwell	32	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	1	-4	17.2	17.7	-0.50	16.1	15.4	0.74
Anthony Carter	33	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.09	-1	-1	0	16.3	18.2	-1.83	15.7	15.6	0.06
Don MacLean	21	20	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	0	-2	18.2	17.2	1.01	14.5	16.0	-1.47
Anthony Mason	80	81	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.45	5	-7	12	17.3	19.3	-1.97	15.6	16.7	-1.11
Tim Hardaway	71	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-2	2	17.4	17.9	-0.57	15.1	18.0	-2.90
Eddie Jones	75	75	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.48	-7	5	-12	18.4	11.9	6.44	15.8	14.8	0.93
Brian Grant	71	72	-0.96	0.46	-1.41	-0.49	-16	14	-30	17.7	16.4	1.27	15.8	14.6	1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.33,0.39,0.16,0.06,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, SEA 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.16,0.09,0.04,0	92.1%
SAS 101, NOP 95	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.14,0.37,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.15,0.15,0	91.8%
HOU 101, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.82,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.17,0.34,0.33,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	91.6%