inpredictable
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Elam Ending Win Probability
Game State
Distance to Target Score: points
Leading Team Ahead By: points
Possession: Y N
ResultsA team leading by 5 points, with possession, and 8 points away from the target score:
Leading Team Win Probability:86.6%
Expected Scoring Margin:6.0 points
Expected Number of Possessions:14.1 possessions

Model Assumptions
Simulated outcome of each possession
PointsProbability
0 points50.5%
1 point3.1%
2 points32.5%
3 points13.7%
4 points0.2%

Each game state simulated 10,000 times to estimate win probability